Music · resolved market
Will 'TEXAS HOLD 'EM' win Song of the Year?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01b5d3a30f38fa413aad3c7ac6c25067db7e1ad2f5f71e483529fd200eddc47d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,408
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,885
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,408 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ed6…6a8dbacked Yes | 6c | 11,640$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x772a…c9f3backed Yes | 1c | 5,258$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3979…f49ebacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae1…839fbacked Yes | 2c | 3,600$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d72…7674backed Yes | 2c | 1,758$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 6c | 1,675$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.46 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93a7…b765backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd031…7d2ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,402$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0916…8fdbbacked Yes | 4c | 1,225$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.68 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +108.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 6c | 1,032$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…b035backed Yes | 3c | 935.73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb4…ee54backed Yes | 4c | 487.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6426…bb53backed Yes | 2c | 476.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e9a…bc84backed Yes | 7c | 447.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed Yes | 6c | 441.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 419.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3aab…c911backed Yes | 5c | 384.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3832…7044backed Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x463e…664ebacked Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0537…5b0fbacked Yes | 4c | 286.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 26cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd848…626fbacked Yes | 5c | 253.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d7…3e75backed Yes | 10c | 250$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +153.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20c6…e38abacked Yes | 5c | 243.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 7c | 229.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +101.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd16…9e21backed Yes | 5c | 190$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe40…e393backed Yes | 6c | 172.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf63b…36bbbacked Yes | 9c | 111.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d1…3ef3backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'TEXAS HOLD 'EM' win Song of the Year?this page
- Will 'A Bar Song (Tipsy)' win Song of the Year?No won
- Will 'BIRDS OF A FEATHER' win Song of the Year?No won
- Will 'Die With A Smile' win Song of the Year?No won
- Will 'Fortnight' win Song of the Year?No won
- Will 'Good Luck, Babe!' win Song of the Year?No won
- Will 'Not Like Us' win Song of the Year?Yes won
- Will 'Please Please Please' win Song of the Year?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.