Chess · resolved market
Ding Liren plays in 2024 World Chess Championship?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xabb59139d615fb6bdac77a718b7926306fa77175ff3061ee164cd82561ca3a2d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,792
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,759
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,792 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x31d0…d03cbacked No | 3c | 2,934$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.95 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked No | 0c | 2,469$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed No | 2c | 1,607$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68cb…a3eebacked No | 4c | 1,335$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…1d52backed No | 1c | 1,260$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 15cpaid | +237.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d57…bfc5backed No | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfad7…559cbacked No | 5c | 734.73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5196…a0cabacked No | 4c | 710.02$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked No | 8c | 687.2$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba1…d315backed No | 5c | 618.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed No | 3c | 613.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe119…dce0backed No | 2c | 483.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed No | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18b7…d868backed No | 4c | 346.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 11c | 213.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -6.0wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33f9…7b86backed No | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.