Tweets · resolved market
Will Trump tweet 20-29 times Nov 8-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0cd78cbbc9196f363db2f4c6003504168526b7deaf3d1e79231d1c2ac97329ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,215
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,853
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,215 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb4f2…7862backed No | 2c | 2,090$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.29 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +10.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7180…c905backed Yes | 50c | 2,052$1,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,026.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fba…7358backed No | 50c | 2,050$1,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,024.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe55d…802cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,500$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,380 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 12cpaid | +525%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc07…9098backed Yes | 8c | 1,500$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,380 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…1d52backed Yes | 7c | 1,236$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,143.44 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 28cpaid | +109.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28f0…ceabbacked Yes | 4c | 930.41$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$889.46 | 45 | 8.9%4 W · 41 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +61%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f76…8e57backed Yes | 8c | 846.8$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.06 | 106 | 20.8%22 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 3c | 829.07$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$803.09 | 87 | 5.7%5 W · 82 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa88d…221cbacked No | 3c | 629.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -86%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98cb…bd72backed Yes | 60c | 548.4$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.71 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0537…5b0fbacked Yes | 35c | 499.99$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.49 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c4…c441backed No | 64c | 479.62$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 8c | 451.1$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.03 | 142 | 18.3%26 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 10c | 441.96$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.73 | 92 | 25%23 W · 69 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe182…e767backed No | 34c | 329.59$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.4 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c1…a743backed Yes | 66c | 300$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.4 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 33cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed Yes | 8c | 262.74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.01 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41b…36bebacked Yes | 5c | 250$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.39 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +67%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 7c | 191.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.19 | 102 | 24.5%25 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3533…f69fbacked Yes | 59c | 175.24$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed Yes | 13c | 162.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.65 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed Yes | 64c | 160.41$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.67 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe14…a3f4backed No | 67c | 153.85$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd7…547dbacked Yes | 79c | 152.14$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.14 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 49cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad67…d6e0backed Yes | 10c | 147.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.77 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3357…bbf8backed Yes | 50c | 138.38$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.15 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00a9…36bbbacked Yes | 8c | 137.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.5 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…9f7ebacked Yes | 65c | 134.06$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.15 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1560…670cbacked No | 72c | 132.47$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 12c | 130.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.71 | 128 | 14.1%18 W · 110 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 80c | 103.92$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 47c | 97.15$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.66 | 84 | 23.8%20 W · 64 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 34c | 95.14$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.72 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a72…12debacked No | 66c | 88$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.08 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -56%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 51c | 87.26$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.61 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 73c | 73$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.18 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…f927backed Yes | 47c | 64.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.38 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6aa…3461backed Yes | 73c | 60.27$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed No | 45c | 53.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 184 | 12%22 W · 162 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3697…f189backed Yes | 29c | 52.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.61 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 17cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f9…2c50backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcad9…6299backed Yes | 67c | 48.4$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac8f…f573backed Yes | 52c | 47.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea7…f625backed Yes | 56c | 44.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…0220backed No | 30c | 36.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70de…5688backed Yes | 59c | 33.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec6…4f34backed Yes | 60c | 33.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe08d…4534backed Yes | 66c | 33.05$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd326…c47cbacked Yes | 56c | 29.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf97f…405bbacked Yes | 80c | 25.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbc…d794backed Yes | 80c | 18.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump tweet 20-29 times Nov 8-15?this page
- Will Trump tweet 10-14 times Nov 8-15?No won
- Will Trump tweet 15-19 times Nov 8-15?No won
- Will Trump tweet 30-39 times Nov 8-15?No won
- Will Trump tweet 40-49 times Nov 8-15?No won
- Will Trump tweet 5-9 times Nov 8-15?No won
- Will Trump tweet 50 or more times Nov 8-15?No won
- Will Trump tweet less than 5 times Nov 8-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.