Tweets · resolved market
Will Trump tweet 30-39 times Nov 8-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad6cc755c05f7429f8768848e194f2664f5c82655430a39d50d3f523e28d59d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,007
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,854
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,007 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 3c | 2,489$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.01 | 142 | 18.3%26 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 1c | 2,439$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +734.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 15c | 1,644$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.27 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28f0…ceabbacked Yes | 7c | 1,555$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.89 | 45 | 8.9%4 W · 41 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +61%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x615b…7958backed Yes | 35c | 1,441$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.67 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 2c | 853.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 87 | 5.7%5 W · 82 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 5c | 836.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.45 | 184 | 12%22 W · 162 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 751.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf183…c3bfbacked Yes | 11c | 460.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 5c | 441.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 92 | 25%23 W · 69 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 27c | 389.71$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.62 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad67…d6e0backed Yes | 4c | 350$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 7c | 308.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 128 | 14.1%18 W · 110 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3697…f189backed Yes | 10c | 295.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 17cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70de…db94backed Yes | 19c | 265.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 105 | 27.6%29 W · 76 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3357…bbf8backed Yes | 19c | 224.8$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a93…38c1backed Yes | 45c | 220.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 29c | 200$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3a…7c06backed Yes | 7c | 174.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc745…9499backed Yes | 20c | 152.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe5…66c2backed Yes | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5c…7560backed Yes | 9c | 118$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd0…f7a4backed Yes | 46c | 106.26$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…dcadbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00a9…36bbbacked No | 65c | 96.92$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.92 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Yes | 30c | 43.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -65%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c417backed Yes | 35c | 41.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump tweet 30-39 times Nov 8-15?this page
- Will Trump tweet 10-14 times Nov 8-15?No won
- Will Trump tweet 15-19 times Nov 8-15?No won
- Will Trump tweet 20-29 times Nov 8-15?Yes won
- Will Trump tweet 40-49 times Nov 8-15?No won
- Will Trump tweet 5-9 times Nov 8-15?No won
- Will Trump tweet 50 or more times Nov 8-15?No won
- Will Trump tweet less than 5 times Nov 8-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.