Music · resolved market
Will Kendrick Lamar release another album in 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc9ee22afc3b4b05222faa613e5a8f3b4499bb3d252b6a417a68b850a52abf10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,443
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,952
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,443 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b12…aba8backed Yes | 11c | 5,386$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.78 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x574b…ec40backed Yes | 50c | 2,980$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x615b…7958backed Yes | 25c | 1,597$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bdb…692abacked Yes | 18c | 1,329$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…6a4cbacked Yes | 23c | 1,327$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.27 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x199d…589abacked Yes | 18c | 1,222$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d8…c7c8backed Yes | 8c | 1,201$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…e22cbacked Yes | 13c | 1,195$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a70…52ccbacked No | 75c | 1,184$894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…f81dbacked Yes | 19c | 866.25$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.1 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +43%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8176…fb7bbacked Yes | 13c | 810.7$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 22c | 624.17$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.92 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 3c | 590.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +7.1wins | +0.17per pick | 34cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7899…ba87backed Yes | 17c | 542.87$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 10c | 526.24$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.25 | 226 | 40.3%91 W · 135 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…6c64backed Yes | 19c | 519.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedb7…d1c4backed Yes | 21c | 499.53$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 74c | 424$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.25 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 42c | 405.55$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.5 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdab9…b346backed Yes | 16c | 367.97$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 15c | 343.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaef…6234backed Yes | 22c | 320$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc041…dc10backed Yes | 10c | 290$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fd…8f4bbacked Yes | 23c | 260.87$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfda…1bc1backed Yes | 20c | 256$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…7d53backed Yes | 17c | 250.94$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3b…c3e2backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b9d…2461backed Yes | 24c | 231.6$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 24c | 230$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.57 | 98 | 44.9%44 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3697…f189backed Yes | 8c | 205.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13ac…fcbebacked Yes | 19c | 189$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x124a…16debacked No | 79c | 187.4$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +95.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7728…f932backed Yes | 15c | 180$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf651…439cbacked Yes | 18c | 151$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90e2…fa6ebacked Yes | 22c | 150.92$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ad…cc1bbacked Yes | 18c | 137.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9cc…aacfbacked Yes | 15c | 127.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3764…9590backed Yes | 24c | 125.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x197a…4932backed Yes | 18c | 125$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a2…e893backed Yes | 25c | 119.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 22c | 115.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 18c | 113.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x890c…3ba4backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…e129backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46b6…7521backed Yes | 18c | 110.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…a72ebacked Yes | 14c | 102.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…0220backed Yes | 24c | 100.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae09…6a64backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…1d52backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd673…1b22backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f4…58c7backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 20c | 99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…b8cdbacked Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7f…2558backed Yes | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba2…6151backed Yes | 13c | 77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…892bbacked Yes | 18c | 69.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe34a…9a91backed Yes | 26c | 61.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9f…3452backed Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3701…ef1ebacked No | 55c | 59$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +80.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…9fd1backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb6…b37fbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0065…02f3backed Yes | 28c | 44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7db8…9c22backed Yes | 28c | 38.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…693fbacked No | 33c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +214.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.