Australian A League · resolved market
Will Newcastle United Jets FC win on 2025-12-20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc59712c9fc5f3a0434eda190d279849e80aa860b99bf58b4ede53e16360e6ebc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,482
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,099
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,482 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac47…d234backed No | 68c | 7,506$5,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,079 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 47cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 33c | 3,321$1,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,238 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 33c | 1,106$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744.04 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a9…ad8bbacked Yes | 77c | 1,049$807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.55 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…9c1ebacked No | 4c | 946.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.39 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 23c | 876.96$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.94 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 32c | 832.68$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.4 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf509…67b9backed Yes | 75c | 799.33$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6e…255abacked Yes | 38c | 720$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed No | 3c | 717.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 33c | 713.84$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.4 | 300 | 55.3%166 W · 134 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fae…3488backed No | 65c | 616.57$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 23c | 476.6$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.12 | 168 | 58.3%98 W · 70 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 45c | 349.61$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.71 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc843…32b7backed Yes | 75c | 318.9$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 36c | 302$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.28 | 139 | 33.8%47 W · 92 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 39c | 300.16$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.28 | 228 | 52.2%119 W · 109 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa469…e73fbacked Yes | 71c | 281.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 74c | 270.27$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.27 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf54a…e25dbacked Yes | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.16 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.24per pick | 37cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe666…14f5backed Yes | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked No | 67c | 199.99$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.79 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2db3…667abacked Yes | 80c | 197.51$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb556…14bfbacked No | 20c | 197.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +191.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9de5…e8f5backed No | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 74cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f86…2874backed Yes | 71c | 147$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.63 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +31%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…228ebacked Yes | 36c | 144.44$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.44 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1670…2277backed Yes | 33c | 122.12$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed No | 29c | 121.72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 36c | 103.81$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.44 | 305 | 36.1%110 W · 195 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c3…0e32backed Yes | 75c | 83.33$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x486e…62c7backed No | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 39cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 74c | 80$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 235 | 51.5%121 W · 114 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfac5…9782backed No | 69c | 77.29$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 72cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd9…eaaebacked Yes | 33c | 75.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Yes | 72c | 64.26$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef41…2473backed No | 31c | 59.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16e4…0641backed Yes | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed No | 20c | 53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa72e…3db9backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…6dd4backed Yes | 35c | 30.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4881…be1cbacked Yes | 74c | 29.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5653…30cbbacked Yes | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Newcastle United Jets FC win on 2025-12-20?this page
- Will Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Sydney FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Sydney FC win on 2025-12-20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.