Australian A League · resolved market
Will Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Sydney FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf260e3026ed7d61bb3ca2dea9ddc0dee49ae5a404e3dd859d3498b9a8d7d247b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,866
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,006
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,866 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 73c | 1,411$1,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.01 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Yes | 30c | 1,300$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 35cpaid | +111.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe930…b44dbacked Yes | 20c | 847.3$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.46 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 74c | 762.25$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.4 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Yes | 24c | 625$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 228 | 52.2%119 W · 109 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 75c | 438.62$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.98 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 20c | 345.08$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.23 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e66…53dfbacked Yes | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 80c | 216$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 69 | 69.6%48 W · 21 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 72c | 187.73$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.32 | 168 | 58.3%98 W · 70 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6981…8ac5backed Yes | 30c | 172.77$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf37c…3c74backed Yes | 30c | 134.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.37 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…3d27backed Yes | 23c | 108.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Yes | 22c | 106.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d32…fe50backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d6…ba60backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x884d…1da6backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 90 | 65.6%59 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Yes | 24c | 98.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0c…f470backed Yes | 30c | 96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd23…3742backed Yes | 31c | 64.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 131 | 49.6%65 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…d24cbacked Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Yes | 23c | 51.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 76c | 33.57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 78c | 19.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 168 | 65.5%110 W · 58 L | +22.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 78c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 305 | 36.1%110 W · 195 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 76c | 16.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 60 | 80%48 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Sydney FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Newcastle United Jets FC win on 2025-12-20?Yes won
- Will Sydney FC win on 2025-12-20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.