TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Knicks vs. Raptors

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Knicksof Knicks, Raptors
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,802,649
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,979,405

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,802,649 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,465 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbddf…c684backed Raptors32c517,796$163,272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163,271.8172648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Raptors32c400,000$128,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127,999.9926253.8%141 W · 121 L+10.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Knicks69c297,356$204,449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92,907.5887144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Knicks68c280,345$190,635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89,710.4726753.2%142 W · 125 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Knicks68c237,000$161,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75,840.0120253.5%108 W · 94 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Raptors33c215,977$71,272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71,272.281,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d16…d24dbacked Knicks68c156,250$106,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50,0008961.8%55 W · 34 L+0.4wins0.00per pick61cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7435…a620backed Knicks68c147,177$100,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47,177.381752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Knicks67c100,469$67,253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,216.2869852%363 W · 335 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Knicks67c92,292$62,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,176.651,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Raptors32c81,705$26,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,145.696352.4%33 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18d1…dbcbbacked Knicks69c71,653$49,441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,212.459641.7%40 W · 56 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x27cb…169ebacked Raptors33c65,791$21,754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,754.1927424.5%67 W · 207 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b13…2c26backed Raptors34c62,578$21,345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,344.715438.9%21 W · 33 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+25.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Knicks69c60,000$41,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,80059653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Knicks68c56,428$38,615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,812.3637557.6%216 W · 159 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87b6…4ababacked Raptors31c54,602$16,713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,712.79955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+17.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Raptors22c50,699$11,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,099.8585742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Raptors33c50,000$16,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,499.9135235.8%126 W · 226 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9249…4f16backed Knicks68c40,000$27,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,799.994841.7%20 W · 28 L-4.5wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-20.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Knicks73c37,186$26,973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,213.485,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Raptors5c35,357$1,904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9041,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Knicks68c34,508$23,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,927.932,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x94d7…bef5backed Raptors23c32,384$7,306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,306.2525925.9%67 W · 192 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Knicks68c32,000$21,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,2404,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Knicks64c31,836$20,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,355.192,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2e4…bc51backed Raptors32c31,250$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00021944.7%98 W · 121 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38c2…d3a7backed Knicks67c27,087$18,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,953.5522458.9%132 W · 92 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Knicks67c25,128$16,785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,342.279,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Raptors8c25,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x245b…00c5backed Raptors31c25,000$7,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,749.9414052.1%73 W · 67 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2487…fa80backed Knicks64c21,071$13,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,596.3118045%81 W · 99 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba41…5f4fbacked Raptors36c21,071$7,586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,585.5331445.2%142 W · 172 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Raptors32c20,001$6,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,400.351350.1%257 W · 256 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Raptors34c19,816$6,688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,688.0636741.4%152 W · 215 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Knicks67c18,888$12,655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,233.0415952.2%83 W · 76 L+9.2wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf5f2…0234backed Raptors36c18,495$6,643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,643.0817658%102 W · 74 L+13.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+15.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5d58…9a15backed Raptors32c17,291$5,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,532.969336.6%34 W · 59 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Knicks69c16,732$11,545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,186.7966853.4%357 W · 311 L+22.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x723f…c7d3backed Raptors37c16,500$6,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,105250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Knicks62c16,255$10,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,150.2759646.1%275 W · 321 L-16.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Knicks66c15,152$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,151.5234062.1%211 W · 129 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Knicks67c14,619$9,776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,842.2544459.7%265 W · 179 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x90ab…ded1backed Raptors31c14,201$4,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,4007745.5%35 W · 42 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Raptors35c13,921$4,843 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,843.424,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa617…111ebacked Knicks64c12,507$8,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,502.52333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.28per pick62cpaid-47.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x09a8…2829backed Knicks64c12,503$8,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,501.08250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Raptors8c12,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9601,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6cff…c3dabacked Raptors7c11,258$768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$768.3718518.4%34 W · 151 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Raptors24c11,231$2,699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6991,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cf5…6440backed Raptors37c11,000$4,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,069.9746928.4%133 W · 336 L+2.3wins0.00per pick28cpaid-4.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Knicks66c10,937$7,246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,691.0935651.1%182 W · 174 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d18…4972backed Raptors36c10,200$3,714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,713.9716339.3%64 W · 99 L-10.2wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-15.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked Raptors3c10,010$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.1913442.5%57 W · 77 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Raptors1c10,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c52…ff83backed Raptors0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105642.9%24 W · 32 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Knicks70c9,888$6,957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,931.084,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe916…4563backed Raptors32c9,375$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0008846.6%41 W · 47 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd599…bf55backed Raptors9c8,889$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80013435.8%48 W · 86 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+16.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb525…bdc7backed Knicks69c8,502$5,866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,635.567447.3%35 W · 39 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f2d…1796backed Raptors36c8,437$3,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,037.32366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+29.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x708d…8a09backed Raptors14c8,025$1,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,115.9921923.7%52 W · 167 L+0.5wins0.00per pick24cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b2d…b68bbacked Knicks63c8,004$5,043 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,961.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Raptors14c8,000$1,145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,14595641.7%399 W · 557 L+1.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07e9…40bbbacked Raptors37c7,985$2,954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,954.510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Knicks63c7,937$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,936.5176746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a04…d57dbacked Knicks65c7,625$4,973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,652.02955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick63cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3450…6793backed Knicks68c7,300$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,299.6617441.4%72 W · 102 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42cb…8412backed Knicks73c7,005$5,099 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,905.957259.7%43 W · 29 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a13…4593backed Knicks67c7,000$4,691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,3092119%4 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-67.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Knicks64c7,000$4,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,50073649.9%367 W · 369 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4124…3291backed Knicks64c7,000$4,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5202100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f5b…d411backed Knicks72c6,939$4,989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,949.85959.3%35 W · 24 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick66cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2509…e4dbbacked Raptors33c6,603$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,199.5866744.5%297 W · 370 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ec…e8f1backed Raptors38c6,579$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50024831.9%79 W · 169 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd041…7b26backed Raptors32c6,250$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001656.3%9 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+59.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Raptors35c6,181$2,178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,178.152,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1033…d851backed Knicks66c6,074$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,074.0427443.1%118 W · 156 L-0.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4954…23d6backed Knicks64c6,000$3,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,160250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd023…0211backed Raptors36c6,000$2,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,160366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+29.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x377c…91aebacked Raptors9c6,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.9947535.8%170 W · 305 L+41.1wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+26.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3212…634ebacked Raptors34c5,843$1,994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,993.8540035.5%142 W · 258 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a53…8c81backed Raptors10c5,823$593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59310027%27 W · 73 L-6.9wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-33.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbdac…f7e2backed Raptors35c5,714$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00019136.1%69 W · 122 L-15.3wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-22.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0f04…4502backed Raptors2c5,713$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.48728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d05…6f11backed Raptors12c5,700$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70026546%122 W · 143 L+1.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83c6…2c17backed Raptors36c5,580$2,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,025.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x306a…0d29backed Knicks64c5,550$3,552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,997.58048.8%39 W · 41 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x27f2…702cbacked Knicks60c5,525$3,315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,210.149868.4%67 W · 31 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54fd…ae61backed Knicks68c5,515$3,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,764.711650%8 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Raptors32c5,500$1,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,76047748.8%233 W · 244 L+1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Knicks78c5,416$4,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,206.068,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Knicks68c5,293$3,591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,701.943,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f05…8937backed Raptors38c5,189$1,949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,948.7347028.1%132 W · 338 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcd3a…67cabacked Raptors31c5,050$1,570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,57050838.2%194 W · 314 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Raptors28c5,040$1,413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,413.191,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9dd…b525backed Raptors33c5,000$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,65044337.9%168 W · 275 L-0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f95…8b86backed Raptors36c5,000$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,80030%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf1a4…e9adbacked Raptors31c5,000$1,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5504535.6%16 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d2f…ef1abacked Knicks64c5,000$3,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,80018553%98 W · 87 L+0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.