NBA · resolved market

Spread: Knicks (-3.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75ac1c5a0915a89089d7f45958de50b033c630be8a09d6a1369c5b9ba816b98c

Rebuilt 16 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Knicksof Knicks, Raptors
Resolved: Dec 10, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $82,619
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $85,448

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,619 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6576…6cc5backed Knicks	55c	40,000$22,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18,000	24	50%12 W · 12 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f79…fefbbacked Raptors	45c	40,000$18,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18,000	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb2f…eca9backed Raptors	41c	10,000$4,100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,100	65	46.2%30 W · 35 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Knicks	58c	7,493$4,347 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,145.64	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9249…4f16backed Raptors	40c	5,327$2,131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,131	48	41.7%20 W · 28 L	-4.5wins	-0.09per pick	51cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Knicks	56c	3,545$2,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,544.97	767	46.4%356 W · 411 L	-16.7wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Knicks	59c	2,155$1,265 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$890.03	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x827a…8a2bbacked Knicks	55c	2,000$1,100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$900	220	53.6%118 W · 102 L	+5.6wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5968…9120backed Raptors	45c	2,000$900 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$900	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	-3.0wins	-0.17per pick	50cpaid	-30%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1dca…6bdcbacked Knicks	55c	2,000$1,100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$900	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	-3.2wins	-0.18per pick	51cpaid	-34.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaceb…6f8ebacked Knicks	57c	1,754$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$754.39	20	55%11 W · 9 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	60cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2c3…0e32backed Knicks	66c	1,723$1,140 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$582.43	51	47.1%24 W · 27 L	-4.0wins	-0.08per pick	55cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Raptors	44c	1,229$547 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$546.72	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Raptors	45c	1,036$468 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$468.28	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b48…050cbacked Knicks	59c	1,000$590 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$410	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.2wins	+0.41per pick	59cpaid	+73.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Raptors	26c	970.86$252 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$252.42	2,630	36.7%966 W · 1,664 L	-119.1wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb74b…d765backed Raptors	45c	889.09$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	28	32.1%9 W · 19 L	-4.4wins	-0.16per pick	48cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5d18…4972backed Raptors	44c	773.45$340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$340.32	163	39.3%64 W · 99 L	-10.2wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7552…72cfbacked Knicks	55c	599.95$330 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$269.98	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	-1.8wins	-0.09per pick	52cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd64…c090backed Knicks	55c	590.91$325 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$265.91	38	63.2%24 W · 14 L	+2.8wins	+0.07per pick	56cpaid	+12%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Raptors	45c	578.92$261 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260.59	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Raptors	43c	557.99$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$239.94	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Knicks	55c	474$263 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$211.31	2,169	40.8%885 W · 1,284 L	-8.7wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Raptors	40c	451.24$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180.5	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Raptors	43c	421.79$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.37	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c36…9433backed Knicks	61c	408.2$249 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$159.2	156	41.7%65 W · 91 L	-13.9wins	-0.09per pick	51cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6102…7661backed Knicks	58c	397$230 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$166.74	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x694c…2546backed Knicks	56c	357.14$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$157.14	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Raptors	42c	349$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.43	285	37.9%108 W · 177 L	-4.5wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f40…92b2backed Raptors	44c	300$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f07…0c4abacked Raptors	44c	299.99$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.99	22	45.5%10 W · 12 L	-1.6wins	-0.07per pick	53cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x96ec…fcc4backed Knicks	57c	280$160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$120.4	272	47.8%130 W · 142 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21b4…e064backed Knicks	55c	260.87$143 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$117.39	119	46.2%55 W · 64 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1488…0672backed Raptors	42c	238$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.27	50	58%29 W · 21 L	+4.0wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+14.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x957e…5758backed Raptors	44c	227.27$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	39	41%16 W · 23 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76ea…7600backed Knicks	71c	219.34$156 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.61	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.07per pick	64cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Raptors	29c	194.34$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.36	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed Knicks	60c	187$112 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.8	500	47.2%236 W · 264 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Raptors	43c	183.14$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.75	950	49.4%469 W · 481 L	+10.8wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Knicks	48c	180.99$87 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94.12	2,208	46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L	+42.7wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea48…c596backed Raptors	44c	179.55$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79	184	44.6%82 W · 102 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x41ce…6509backed Knicks	56c	178.57$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.57	280	46.8%131 W · 149 L	-6.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4335…fc2fbacked Knicks	59c	173.69$102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71.21	173	54.3%94 W · 79 L	+3.6wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Raptors	43c	173.58$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.98	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc81…5df2backed Knicks	58c	172.41$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.41	50	60%30 W · 20 L	+3.3wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc483…8ac8backed Knicks	57c	160.37$91 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69	26	65.4%17 W · 9 L	+2.9wins	+0.11per pick	54cpaid	+19.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Raptors	45c	142$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.9	446	48%214 W · 232 L	-12.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c94…a43bbacked Raptors	46c	140$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.4	511	46.6%238 W · 273 L	-13.7wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Raptors	46c	126.08$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.76	526	43%226 W · 300 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd976…7050backed Knicks	56c	125$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-2.0wins	-0.16per pick	58cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa65b…b0c0backed Raptors	43c	121$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.03	95	60%57 W · 38 L	+10.7wins	+0.11per pick	49cpaid	+20.8%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6191…e505backed Knicks	58c	120$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.1	49	51%25 W · 24 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x860d…3c72backed Raptors	45c	103.94$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.77	266	51.1%136 W · 130 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc169…b468backed Raptors	45c	100$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	22	31.8%7 W · 15 L	-3.0wins	-0.14per pick	46cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa75d…1d45backed Knicks	55c	90.91$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.91	223	47.1%105 W · 118 L	-9.7wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Knicks	56c	89.29$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.29	324	50%162 W · 162 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed Knicks	58c	86.21$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.21	603	46.4%280 W · 323 L	-12.0wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed3f…0ab8backed Raptors	43c	80$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.4	87	49.4%43 W · 44 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a20…8248backed Raptors	45c	74$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.3	30	43.3%13 W · 17 L	-1.7wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf54a…e25dbacked Knicks	55c	72.73$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.73	157	52.2%82 W · 75 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d58…8accbacked Knicks	55c	70$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.5	358	51.7%185 W · 173 L	-6.8wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa710…f1ccbacked Knicks	58c	68.97$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.97	81	46.9%38 W · 43 L	-3.9wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a05…0329backed Raptors	44c	56.37$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.55	64	34.4%22 W · 42 L	-5.4wins	-0.08per pick	43cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x97de…15eabacked Knicks	57c	56$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.08	41	51.2%21 W · 20 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x33b7…c747backed Knicks	57c	54$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.22	23	56.5%13 W · 10 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67bc…4d94backed Knicks	56c	53.57$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.57	210	51.4%108 W · 102 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Raptors	47c	53.19$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	1,444	58.1%839 W · 605 L	+13.5wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a2c…38ccbacked Knicks	57c	52$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.36	32	37.5%12 W · 20 L	-4.4wins	-0.14per pick	51cpaid	-27.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa047…f4c5backed Raptors	44c	51.48$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.65	72	52.8%38 W · 34 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1208…0160backed Knicks	60c	50$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	667	32.4%216 W · 451 L	+41.8wins	+0.06per pick	26cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Knicks	55c	50$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.5	801	46.4%372 W · 429 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5fb3…88c1backed Knicks	61c	50$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.5	612	53.1%325 W · 287 L	-20.0wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc07d…5bd8backed Raptors	46c	50$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	185	54.1%100 W · 85 L	+8.7wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc53…71f2backed Knicks	58c	44.62$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.74	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.10per pick	43cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Raptors	42c	40$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.8	807	44.1%356 W · 451 L	+6.2wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37e8…441fbacked Knicks	55c	40$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18	21	57.1%12 W · 9 L	+1.3wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc968…c59bbacked Knicks	55c	39.64$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.64	31	51.6%16 W · 15 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb052…7adabacked Knicks	56c	35.71$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.71	290	46.9%136 W · 154 L	-9.0wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a4e…e3a4backed Knicks	57c	33$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.19	38	57.9%22 W · 16 L	+2.4wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Knicks	54c	30$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.7	1,786	53.2%950 W · 836 L	+52.7wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x36f4…4dafbacked Knicks	57c	29.82$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.82	35	62.9%22 W · 13 L	+3.1wins	+0.09per pick	54cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x152c…3b50backed Knicks	57c	19$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.17	29	62.1%18 W · 11 L	+3.0wins	+0.10per pick	52cpaid	+19.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0068…d7b0backed Knicks	60c	19$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.6	32	34.4%11 W · 21 L	-6.0wins	-0.19per pick	53cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	38-0.10 edge/pick
0x41ae…bdfcbacked Knicks	57c	18$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.74	29	48.3%14 W · 15 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Knicks (-3.5)this page
1H Spread: Knicks (-1.5)Knicks won
1H Spread: Knicks (-2.5)Knicks won
1H Spread: Knicks (-3.5)Knicks won
Knicks vs. RaptorsKnicks won
Knicks vs. Raptors: 1H MoneylineKnicks won
Knicks vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
Knicks vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
Knicks vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 117.5Over won
Knicks vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
Knicks vs. Raptors: O/U 225.5Under won
Knicks vs. Raptors: O/U 226.5Under won
Knicks vs. Raptors: O/U 227.5Under won
Knicks vs. Raptors: O/U 228.5Under won
Knicks vs. Raptors: O/U 229.5Under won
Knicks vs. Raptors: O/U 230.5Under won
Knicks vs. Raptors: O/U 231.5Under won
Knicks vs. Raptors: O/U 232.5Under won
Spread: Knicks (-4.5)Knicks won
Spread: Knicks (-5.5)Knicks won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Knicks (-3.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event