NBA · resolved market
Knicks vs. Raptors: O/U 229.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ecfa3d925cb030628258436115b9ce83047590c96ed5187ec8e302d090ff7a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,074
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,800
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,074 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b8a…591cbacked Under | 53c | 1,430$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.67 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -43%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 42c | 1,402$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.95 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 47c | 991.18$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.71 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 43c | 935.56$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.96 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32e0…390abacked Under | 57c | 750$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.5 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 47c | 729.63$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.67 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…420bbacked Over | 48c | 700$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 294 | 58.5%172 W · 122 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x221d…797abacked Over | 42c | 600$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Under | 53c | 566.04$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.04 | 271 | 61.3%166 W · 105 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 57c | 552$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.36 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 53c | 495.96$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.85 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 47c | 450$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.5 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1033…d851backed Over | 59c | 450$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266 | 274 | 43.1%118 W · 156 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4441…3551backed Over | 62c | 400$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f7…c4e5backed Under | 38c | 300$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 156 | 56.4%88 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Under | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc483…8ac8backed Under | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x034d…10d2backed Over | 40c | 171$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…a35bbacked Under | 57c | 171$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.53 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb9…2010backed Under | 60c | 161$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf373…dc57backed Over | 42c | 150$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9773…67e8backed Under | 58c | 101$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.42 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Under | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30ee…5d12backed Over | 43c | 81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.83 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa48…9062backed Over | 43c | 79$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Over | 44c | 70.39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 54c | 69.43$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.76 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5d…be79backed Over | 42c | 65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Under | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 612 | 53.1%325 W · 287 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x216f…9b1ebacked Under | 58c | 47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2587…a117backed Under | 58c | 38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…cc70backed Under | 57c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde2e…6875backed Under | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x334f…0d32backed Under | 58c | 19.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 136 | 52.2%71 W · 65 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5017…4daebacked Over | 53c | 18.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Knicks vs. Raptors: O/U 229.5this page
- 1H Spread: Knicks (-1.5)Knicks won
- 1H Spread: Knicks (-2.5)Knicks won
- 1H Spread: Knicks (-3.5)Knicks won
- Knicks vs. RaptorsKnicks won
- Knicks vs. Raptors: 1H MoneylineKnicks won
- Knicks vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 117.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Raptors: O/U 225.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Raptors: O/U 226.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Raptors: O/U 227.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Raptors: O/U 228.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Raptors: O/U 230.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Raptors: O/U 231.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Raptors: O/U 232.5Under won
- Spread: Knicks (-3.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-4.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-5.5)Knicks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.