TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in March?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,154,591
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,684,325

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,154,591 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 480 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfed8…4388backed No59c191,766$112,497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79,269.173100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+47.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf705…3ca7backed Yes23c160,786$37,740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,739.6335123.9%84 W · 267 L+15.9wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-36.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes22c160,257$34,652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,652.0237745.9%173 W · 204 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a87…4e00backed Yes6c125,824$7,059 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,058.8970%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6916…2fd4backed Yes24c123,447$29,708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,707.6463835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa701…47cdbacked No63c121,587$76,856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44,730.67785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick67cpaid+25.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xab51…2473backed Yes2c101,118$1,862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,861.8611813.6%16 W · 102 L+10.9wins+0.09per pick4cpaid+281.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xf9fd…3144backed Yes4c52,601$2,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,259.630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb392…fc73backed Yes5c40,334$2,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,039.954912.2%6 W · 43 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-77.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x252d…c456backed Yes31c31,184$9,593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,593.3247721.6%103 W · 374 L-21.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-55.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x51d7…238cbacked No44c27,000$11,796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,203.794050%20 W · 20 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1bf…f74bbacked Yes40c22,300$9,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,01210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0a2…f752backed Yes1c19,889$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4d0…ad4dbacked Yes12c19,449$2,261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,260.9616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-78.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes42c15,336$6,368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,368.4187828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2c9…9c10backed Yes27c13,795$3,739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,738.8514337.1%53 W · 90 L-0.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-30.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes1c11,541$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.174754.6%22 W · 453 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+144.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b06…0b42backed Yes58c11,063$6,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,425.112231.8%7 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-38%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x716d…4206backed Yes31c11,062$3,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,465.12733.3%9 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid-43.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7558…2d70backed Yes1c10,747$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.821105.5%6 W · 104 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick4cpaid+37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa163…4dd3backed Yes11c10,000$1,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,097.541442.9%6 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick58cpaid-31.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1af1…7b88backed Yes3c10,000$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2693414.7%5 W · 29 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick7cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2cce…6e85backed Yes20c9,860$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000.236613.6%9 W · 57 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid+36.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b02…4991backed Yes40c9,701$3,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,880.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4572…5e86backed Yes14c9,286$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3001625%4 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-50.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2f69…acb6backed Yes6c9,112$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.41792.2%4 W · 175 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-71.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c96…1cc1backed Yes8c8,799$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$695.7137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick14cpaid-89.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x28ef…df7dbacked Yes1c8,633$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.3250%0 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x353e…9db2backed Yes5c8,301$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.011118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-56.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x090c…4deebacked Yes4c8,152$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3502711.1%3 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick13cpaid+11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3634…b6afbacked Yes1c7,853$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes8c7,361$556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556.3328113.2%37 W · 244 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-68.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0cc3…edf0backed Yes3c7,134$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.895425.9%14 W · 40 L+5.8wins+0.11per pick15cpaid+37.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes5c6,874$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3736785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x187f…a85bbacked Yes6c6,621$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.553339.4%13 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-31.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90da…4042backed Yes2c6,418$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-78.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes4c6,376$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.654163.1%13 W · 403 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf61f…3ce1backed Yes2c6,269$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001379.5%13 W · 124 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+25.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes7c6,019$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.791373.6%5 W · 132 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-62.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ede…57c0backed Yes12c5,667$699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.0530%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8035…f36dbacked Yes6c5,531$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.152133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-38%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a18…c5c4backed No61c5,386$3,276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,110.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+64.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7581…76e6backed Yes6c5,374$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.9260%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6239…c6b4backed Yes2c5,365$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.94413.6%6 W · 38 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-43.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0142…5146backed Yes6c5,105$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21c6…927bbacked Yes6c5,062$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.251672.4%4 W · 163 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-68.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3493…9538backed Yes29c5,047$1,464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,463.7440%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4dc…f5b5backed Yes16c5,046$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c3d…5deebacked Yes10c5,019$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x960c…4a4ebacked Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f55…e9a4backed Yes6c4,904$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30014213.4%19 W · 123 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+58.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x25af…bcafbacked Yes10c4,838$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.193998.5%34 W · 365 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cfb…cc11backed Yes2c4,706$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.19170%0 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc924…8276backed Yes2c4,639$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.33185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-89.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes17c4,441$737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$737.235012%6 W · 44 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-22.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8bd…463dbacked No80c4,300$3,438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$861.59650%3 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-34.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes6c4,234$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.052581.2%3 W · 255 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-84%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe228…1f4cbacked Yes7c4,201$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.83616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-56.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes22c4,095$883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$883.0740643.3%176 W · 230 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…ef38backed Yes7c4,058$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.03812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-77.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6801…7030backed Yes8c4,030$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc903…b175backed Yes63c4,000$2,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5201650%8 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+44.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d40…09abbacked Yes13c3,930$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500195.3%1 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick5cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa8f…d61bbacked Yes58c3,640$2,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,117.562650%13 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-23.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb803…b265backed Yes1c3,629$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25238.7%2 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07cb…867fbacked Yes11c3,558$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400450%2 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+153.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e2b…97b2backed Yes14c3,420$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.7742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-38.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked Yes1c3,091$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.981970%0 W · 197 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14e2…282fbacked Yes1c3,069$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.75407.5%3 W · 37 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-64.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca0c…b9b6backed Yes12c2,733$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.148235.4%29 W · 53 L+8.1wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2c0e…524cbacked Yes8c2,516$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.56013.3%8 W · 52 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-36.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Yes59c2,498$1,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,480.227767.5%52 W · 25 L+5.7wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x92f9…e5fabacked Yes11c2,497$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2721118.2%2 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-65.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc80…64aebacked Yes9c2,495$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.32300%0 W · 30 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes8c2,469$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.042683.4%9 W · 259 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-53.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf97d…0077backed Yes1c2,400$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes7c2,398$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.973511.4%4 W · 31 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-70.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfff1…ed1fbacked Yes42c2,330$985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9852763%17 W · 10 L+3.7wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+26.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x01fb…ad54backed Yes12c2,277$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.15728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick21cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd227…dc03backed Yes11c2,252$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.8870%0 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc26c…4bc9backed Yes7c2,216$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.4960%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x48f3…92fbbacked Yes25c2,065$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.32520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-45.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f58…0ff0backed Yes42c2,005$842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$842.16417.2%11 W · 53 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+163.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes21c2,000$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4202560%15 W · 10 L+3.3wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+10.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe963…1856backed No55c2,000$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9001637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-27.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd2d9…8465backed Yes11c1,850$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-59.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2808…df52backed Yes46c1,848$841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$841.17742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xebe3…c1eebacked Yes7c1,766$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.161526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick38cpaid-61.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3bf…e70fbacked Yes3c1,740$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.381637.5%6 W · 10 L+4.4wins+0.27per pick10cpaid+549.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x7d1b…e114backed Yes10c1,719$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.91457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd586…08e9backed Yes6c1,702$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d76…d7a0backed Yes69c1,670$1,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,15210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x742c…acc0backed Yes11c1,577$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.223551.4%18 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+21.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba6f…36f2backed No65c1,544$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$544.12366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dc2…2f88backed Yes9c1,510$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.9320%0 W · 32 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaae2…dbdabacked Yes34c1,498$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.621942.1%8 W · 11 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick33cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0793…effabacked Yes20c1,476$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.65450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+21.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes7c1,464$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.72527.7%4 W · 48 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-74%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2965…c74abacked Yes67c1,446$967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$967.31366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+40.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bf6…9815backed Yes1c1,360$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.