Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe11f25607d3932731bb42b4c8f6613456a45abb7267b25f0eeefe6ed505b79b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $817,026
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $809,537
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $817,026 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x53a0…4af0backed Yes | 0c | 31,810$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.54 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 10cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 1c | 22,717$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.47 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 0c | 22,230$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.22 | 148 | 8.8%13 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa92d…4e71backed Yes | 0c | 19,999$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 6%3 W · 47 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8907…d8e6backed Yes | 0c | 17,348$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.95 | 62 | 0%0 W · 62 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a55…359cbacked Yes | 1c | 15,910$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 416 | 3.1%13 W · 403 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf705…3ca7backed Yes | 1c | 13,409$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.01 | 351 | 23.9%84 W · 267 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 12,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 229 | 0%0 W · 229 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 1c | 11,364$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.34 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92bb…1afbbacked Yes | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 40 | 0%0 W · 40 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c31…b166backed Yes | 1c | 10,210$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55fc…a2fdbacked Yes | 1c | 10,178$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbec7…32a1backed Yes | 1c | 10,140$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d3…f6cfbacked Yes | 1c | 10,120$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…e2c0backed Yes | 1c | 10,106$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.07 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9851…1320backed Yes | 1c | 9,929$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44fb…4ababacked Yes | 2c | 9,550$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a0…60c3backed Yes | 0c | 9,498$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 43 | 0%0 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x907d…20c4backed Yes | 0c | 8,354$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -94.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x915d…b65cbacked Yes | 1c | 6,479$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0f…2f40backed Yes | 0c | 6,007$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 5,145$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 149 | 0.7%1 W · 148 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b99…9f1dbacked Yes | 1c | 5,082$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2258…cfb9backed Yes | 0c | 4,441$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…5e2abacked Yes | 0c | 4,010$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea2a…65afbacked Yes | 1c | 4,003$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6368…172fbacked Yes | 1c | 4,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf49d…3c3bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,811$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.23 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 3,670$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.77 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 1c | 3,382$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x560b…85d7backed Yes | 0c | 3,062$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbeda…4acbbacked Yes | 1c | 2,584$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 142 | 2.1%3 W · 139 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 1c | 2,408$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 258 | 1.2%3 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 2,400$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 292 | 2.1%6 W · 286 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 1c | 2,348$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,327$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 137 | 3.6%5 W · 132 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 1c | 2,250$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 268 | 3.4%9 W · 259 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff2…9070backed Yes | 1c | 2,091$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5543…8d64backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.96 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x298d…ddb9backed Yes | 1c | 1,842$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 10cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d75…f807backed Yes | 2c | 1,716$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebbb…6baabacked Yes | 1c | 1,667$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 1c | 1,649$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 197 | 0%0 W · 197 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 1c | 1,075$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a98…e178backed Yes | 1c | 1,020$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb392…fc73backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 49 | 12.2%6 W · 43 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe46f…7e60backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…3469backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 86 | 1.2%1 W · 85 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff54…0b00backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e98…63bdbacked Yes | 2c | 705.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in March?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in March?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in March?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in March?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $400 in March?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $600 in March?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $800 in March?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in March?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in March?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in March?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in March?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in March?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in March?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in March?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.