Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7a9755e95e3809cd57814a2e32bcae9c752f5403a5eef12c6cc509ea10b1c9e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,377,510
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,276,714
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,377,510 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bac…02b1backed Yes | 0c | 866,674$1,895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,895.23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53a0…4af0backed Yes | 0c | 590,519$1,735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,735.29 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 10cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7be7…9700backed Yes | 0c | 381,806$1,189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,189 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa776…11c5backed Yes | 0c | 177,851$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.29 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a94…8a1dbacked Yes | 0c | 175,486$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.96 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -90.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a0…60c3backed Yes | 0c | 146,000$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438 | 43 | 0%0 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde24…25a8backed Yes | 0c | 113,389$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.56 | 59 | 0%0 W · 59 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8907…d8e6backed Yes | 0c | 88,151$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.86 | 62 | 0%0 W · 62 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5c…3036backed Yes | 0c | 79,999$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 102 | 2%2 W · 100 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -91.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb101…2075backed Yes | 0c | 53,616$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x691f…f8aebacked Yes | 0c | 51,662$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9851…1320backed Yes | 0c | 42,163$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.99 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff4e…5502backed Yes | 0c | 39,999$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d75…f807backed Yes | 0c | 35,851$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.05 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc637…71f6backed Yes | 0c | 32,887$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 0c | 28,541$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.54 | 148 | 8.8%13 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95e4…acc6backed Yes | 0c | 27,272$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8493…e006backed Yes | 0c | 26,786$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.36 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc29…258abacked Yes | 0c | 25,998$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21cb…c562backed Yes | 0c | 24,980$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a32…8a7ebacked Yes | 0c | 24,945$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8866…002abacked Yes | 0c | 22,998$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c0…fad2backed Yes | 0c | 22,666$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b76…c036backed Yes | 0c | 22,012$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90bb…531fbacked Yes | 0c | 22,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 71 | 0%0 W · 71 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa92d…4e71backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 6%3 W · 47 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92bb…1afbbacked Yes | 0c | 19,999$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 0%0 W · 40 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x440f…5429backed Yes | 0c | 19,292$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aea…518fbacked Yes | 0c | 13,333$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x968f…3ac0backed Yes | 0c | 12,810$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd33…7471backed Yes | 0c | 11,382$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5366…7fb5backed Yes | 0c | 10,995$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x233f…a752backed Yes | 0c | 10,665$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3961…963fbacked Yes | 0c | 10,501$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea0…e0f4backed Yes | 0c | 10,254$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0186…9dd8backed Yes | 0c | 10,024$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…e2c0backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…be78backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…3366backed Yes | 0c | 9,753$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fca…3cb3backed Yes | 0c | 8,420$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95c9…6f23backed Yes | 0c | 7,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72b7…f99bbacked Yes | 0c | 7,125$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x915d…b65cbacked Yes | 0c | 6,700$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 0c | 6,623$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47e4…eda3backed Yes | 0c | 6,593$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc5…48a4backed Yes | 0c | 6,100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa60e…5e78backed Yes | 0c | 5,653$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435e…3bd4backed Yes | 0c | 5,347$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c83…8c5fbacked Yes | 0c | 5,231$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 0c | 4,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 416 | 3.1%13 W · 403 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbeb…050ebacked Yes | 0c | 3,487$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 6cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed2e…41f7backed Yes | 0c | 3,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5543…8d64backed Yes | 0c | 3,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x696f…d8b9backed Yes | 0c | 2,720$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5194…1dcabacked Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9663…a1aabacked Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +129.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2bd…2a5dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1494…9887backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in March?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in March?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in March?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in March?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $400 in March?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $600 in March?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $800 in March?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in March?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in March?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in March?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in March?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in March?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in March?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in March?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.