TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,349,560
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,520,257

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,349,560 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4bac…02b1backed Yes0c1,456,524$2,913 inLost-$2,913.0540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fc4…6b81backed Yes0c130,000$390 inLost-$390825%2 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-64.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2fa0…1426backed Yes0c66,667$200 inLost-$20010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes0c57,897$78 inLost-$77.91488.8%13 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick4cpaid-49.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4004…c6fdbacked Yes0c56,667$170 inLost-$17010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0873…09e8backed Yes0c54,661$55 inLost-$54.66300%0 W · 30 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfcf…6dc5backed Yes0c49,722$50 inLost-$49.7250%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e5c…3036backed Yes0c39,999$120 inLost-$1201022%2 W · 100 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-91.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf166…fb37backed Yes0c39,243$39 inLost-$39.2440%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff4e…5502backed Yes0c36,687$37 inLost-$36.69230%0 W · 23 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e25…a08abacked Yes0c28,817$86 inLost-$86.4520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bda…4974backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92bb…1afbbacked Yes0c19,924$20 inLost-$19.92400%0 W · 40 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8907…d8e6backed Yes0c18,367$43 inLost-$42.55620%0 W · 62 L-0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2258…cfb9backed Yes0c17,432$52 inLost-$52.340%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf73a…1fd2backed Yes0c16,666$50 inLost-$5030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9abb…5db6backed Yes0c15,777$47 inLost-$47.3330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbeb…050ebacked Yes0c15,287$46 inLost-$45.86616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick6cpaid-18.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes0c9,000$23 inLost-$234163.1%13 W · 403 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a4f…766abacked Yes0c8,510$26 inLost-$25.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce90…d285backed Yes0c8,395$25 inLost-$25.18229.1%2 W · 20 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick3cpaid-65.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc637…71f6backed Yes0c6,901$21 inLost-$20.720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9873…c3a0backed Yes0c6,023$18 inLost-$18.07425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-46.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb30…2169backed Yes0c4,690$14 inLost-$14.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5194…1dcabacked Yes0c3,720$11 inLost-$11.1630%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.