TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in March?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,081,007
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$934,835

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,081,007 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 194 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf705…3ca7backed Yes10c57,405$6,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,024.5835123.9%84 W · 267 L+15.9wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-36.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d3e…eec6backed Yes21c50,010$10,314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,313.732536%9 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x530e…cc11backed Yes3c40,147$1,124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,124.196123%14 W · 47 L+6.6wins+0.11per pick12cpaid+143.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3e8f…e1ebbacked No67c36,999$24,856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,143.213100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6916…2fd4backed Yes14c23,554$3,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,214.263835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d40…09abbacked Yes6c17,822$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000195.3%1 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick5cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfed8…4388backed No71c17,077$12,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,023.073100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+47.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa701…47cdbacked No72c15,924$11,430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,494.3785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick67cpaid+25.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0cc3…edf0backed Yes6c15,659$997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$997.195425.9%14 W · 40 L+5.8wins+0.11per pick15cpaid+37.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4572…5e86backed Yes33c15,152$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,000.161625%4 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-50.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb835…683bbacked Yes24c14,500$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,499.8840%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfcdf…56c9backed Yes32c12,000$3,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,8402520%5 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-21.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65be…4c2abacked Yes31c12,000$3,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,720560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+19.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x68d2…2184backed Yes3c11,688$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.14120%0 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f62…2ce6backed Yes30c10,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00010313.6%14 W · 89 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7558…2d70backed Yes2c9,998$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.771105.5%6 W · 104 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick4cpaid+37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3360…955bbacked Yes1c9,868$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.154311.6%5 W · 38 L+0.2wins0.00per pick11cpaid-67.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c96…1cc1backed Yes4c8,510$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.61137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick14cpaid-89.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes28c8,000$2,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2807327.4%20 W · 53 L-9.1wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-59.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7152…faacbacked Yes0c8,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16940%0 W · 94 L-0.4wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes4c7,407$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.846785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f69…acb6backed Yes4c7,388$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.631792.2%4 W · 175 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-71.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes0c7,104$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.81490.7%1 W · 148 L-0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid-80.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x997c…251ebacked Yes3c6,518$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.9411720.5%24 W · 93 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes2c6,458$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.634163.1%13 W · 403 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes16c6,377$1,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,034.6987828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1af1…7b88backed Yes9c6,000$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.353414.7%5 W · 29 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick7cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes3c5,959$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.081373.6%5 W · 132 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-62.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9fd…3144backed Yes2c5,652$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b91…e572backed No77c5,407$4,137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,269.913716.2%6 W · 31 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-56.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3526…aababacked Yes5c4,437$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.35425.9%14 W · 40 L+8.0wins+0.15per pick11cpaid+83.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8aed…46fabacked Yes3c4,416$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.28200%0 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes7c4,413$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.9240643.3%176 W · 230 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes7c4,155$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.965012%6 W · 44 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-22.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc903…b175backed Yes30c4,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2001650%8 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+44.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x25af…bcafbacked Yes11c3,977$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.033998.5%34 W · 365 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4f5…181dbacked Yes1c3,910$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4648…fc9fbacked Yes4c3,837$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.787018.6%13 W · 57 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-34%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes4c3,439$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.92581.2%3 W · 255 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-84%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21c6…927bbacked Yes4c3,325$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.851672.4%4 W · 163 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-68.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd227…dc03backed Yes5c3,314$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.3370%0 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc924…8276backed Yes1c3,222$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.03185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-89.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x92f9…e5fabacked Yes3c3,145$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001118.2%2 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-65.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc250…8d6ebacked No70c3,040$2,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$912.35964.4%38 W · 21 L-5.3wins-0.09per pick73cpaid-12%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7e25…172fbacked Yes2c2,840$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6060%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e2c…b7f8backed Yes33c2,692$887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$887.31175.9%1 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick3cpaid-35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45df…5b27backed Yes6c2,622$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.71320%0 W · 32 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e5c…3036backed Yes19c2,600$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5021022%2 W · 100 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-91.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf60a…c9bdbacked Yes1c2,404$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29110%0 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16f0…aba5backed Yes33c2,390$778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$778.46543.1%28 W · 37 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4d0…ad4dbacked Yes7c2,375$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-78.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68c9…4c60backed No76c2,219$1,685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$534.211952.6%10 W · 9 L-3.0wins-0.16per pick69cpaid-29.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes1c2,105$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5482.1%1 W · 47 L0.0wins0.00per pick2cpaid-93.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc80…64aebacked Yes7c2,080$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.6300%0 W · 30 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x08e2…871ebacked Yes3c2,067$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x090c…4deebacked Yes7c2,060$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1402711.1%3 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick13cpaid+11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac6a…57d1backed Yes1c2,000$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28326.3%2 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-64.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes3c1,789$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.28590%0 W · 59 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x628c…c651backed Yes29c1,728$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5004623.9%11 W · 35 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-29.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5dde…2217backed Yes1c1,606$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201717.6%3 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-55.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f55…e9a4backed Yes6c1,585$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10014213.4%19 W · 123 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+58.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes5c1,546$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.652683.4%9 W · 259 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-53.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc26c…4bc9backed Yes3c1,539$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.2860%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes3c1,517$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.58985.1%5 W · 93 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+68.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec68…a36fbacked Yes22c1,500$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.53520%7 W · 28 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-37.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3e1…333bbacked Yes20c1,478$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.5620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x353e…9db2backed Yes2c1,467$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.521118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-56.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c0e…524cbacked Yes10c1,409$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.46013.3%8 W · 52 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-36.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c0c…c312backed Yes7c1,278$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90567.1%4 W · 52 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick4cpaid-22.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f71…912dbacked Yes3c1,218$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.56695.8%4 W · 65 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb65…571cbacked No76c1,200$916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-48%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe551…7382backed Yes1c1,165$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.05137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick2cpaid+81.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x25db…28debacked Yes30c1,106$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.69100%0 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4b91…982dbacked Yes3c1,047$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.45190%0 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8519…f4e1backed Yes7c1,047$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7570%0 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce2d…f266backed Yes24c1,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2402821.4%6 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick21cpaid+20.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0656…4d9bbacked Yes27c1,000$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-43.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bd8…d300backed Yes34c979.23$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.562412.5%3 W · 21 L-2.8wins-0.11per pick24cpaid-78.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc0bf…f42ebacked Yes4c975.19$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick13cpaid+87.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a95…c43ebacked Yes36c953.14$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.96728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4440…d8f2backed Yes8c950.48$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.5740%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d74…04f5backed Yes23c916.91$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.891915.8%3 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-0.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x00da…f42abacked Yes22c909.09$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20040%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1aae…6a6fbacked Yes3c900$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f8c…7ae5backed Yes6c842.27$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.51931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-48.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa894…7607backed Yes5c788.49$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404112.2%5 W · 36 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-51%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf143…c090backed Yes18c772.17$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.99911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick15cpaid+204.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fb7…9806backed Yes2c761$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79dc…51b2backed Yes6c698.88$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43150%0 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x79a3…d6b9backed Yes29c690.5$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.84250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e66…41e7backed Yes2c689.91$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.45180%0 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b04…aca6backed Yes5c684.8$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.2490%0 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x25ca…f5e6backed Yes2c643.13$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa076…e248backed Yes4c621.5$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.93650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x482b…3266backed Yes33c600$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+18.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf26f…5724backed Yes3c585$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes30c576.67$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae9e…cfe1backed No78c546.94$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.84862.5%30 W · 18 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes6c533.16$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.71527.7%4 W · 48 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-74%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb73…7f1dbacked Yes3c530.66$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.