TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Ethereum dip to $800 in March?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$379,115
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$376,981

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $379,115 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x45df…5b27backed Yes0c20,612$21 inLost-$20.61320%0 W · 32 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x878a…134dbacked Yes1c20,066$224 inLost-$224.38260%0 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa92d…4e71backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost-$20506%3 W · 47 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-90.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92bb…1afbbacked Yes0c19,998$20 inLost-$20400%0 W · 40 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes1c12,394$90 inLost-$90.15482.1%1 W · 47 L0.0wins0.00per pick2cpaid-93.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e5c…3036backed Yes1c11,788$71 inLost-$70.731022%2 W · 100 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-91.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7ef…1ad6backed Yes0c8,650$17 inLost-$17.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes0c7,641$15 inLost-$15.282290%0 W · 229 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes0c7,392$15 inLost-$14.781488.8%13 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick4cpaid-49.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6388…bf12backed Yes2c5,878$100 inLost-$100714.3%1 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid-56.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe93…a2f3backed Yes1c5,060$46 inLost-$45.5420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9980…6674backed Yes1c5,060$46 inLost-$45.5430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc81…be46backed Yes1c5,010$45 inLost-$45.0940%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4f7…aedebacked Yes1c4,277$38 inLost-$37.64812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick24cpaid-82.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xed2e…41f7backed Yes1c4,000$41 inLost-$40.9490%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x224c…ee07backed Yes1c3,683$40 inLost-$403020%6 W · 24 L+4.4wins+0.15per pick5cpaid+142.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x55e4…f67dbacked Yes1c3,193$33 inLost-$33.244721.3%10 W · 37 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick17cpaid-10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd609…40f4backed Yes1c2,752$28 inLost-$27.52496.1%3 W · 46 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-48.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8646…ed78backed Yes1c1,964$13 inLost-$12.7570%0 W · 7 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbeda…4acbbacked Yes1c1,695$15 inLost-$15.071422.1%3 W · 139 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-73.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce2d…f266backed Yes1c1,467$11 inLost-$112821.4%6 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick21cpaid+20.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25af…bcafbacked Yes1c1,464$12 inLost-$11.843998.5%34 W · 365 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd78c…3469backed Yes1c1,136$11 inLost-$10.69861.2%1 W · 85 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-87.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.