Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9fa5501b17761f3533ce4878d54700fd531c3ecd18d538d3778afcd4be738f67
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $790,592
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $776,418
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $790,592 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1af1…7b88backed Yes | 4c | 80,552$3,543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,543.35 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 7cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc3…edf0backed Yes | 2c | 29,357$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.15 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe867…aeafbacked Yes | 1c | 21,244$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 2cpaid | +1,401%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdf…56c9backed Yes | 10c | 20,177$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f62…2ce6backed Yes | 8c | 19,474$1,558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,557.93 | 103 | 13.6%14 W · 89 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0a…df43backed Yes | 1c | 16,171$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.17 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…5e2abacked Yes | 0c | 15,811$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.44 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45df…5b27backed Yes | 0c | 15,414$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.97 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d40…09abbacked Yes | 2c | 14,687$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1087…013bbacked Yes | 9c | 12,319$1,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,105.69 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 0c | 11,912$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bcf…37d9backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9a…fef7backed Yes | 1c | 9,710$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 9,701$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 229 | 0%0 W · 229 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4902…9b08backed Yes | 8c | 9,020$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5c…3036backed Yes | 6c | 8,100$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.5 | 102 | 2%2 W · 100 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -91.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb098…7cf0backed Yes | 7c | 8,099$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.27 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f55…e9a4backed Yes | 3c | 7,684$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 142 | 13.4%19 W · 123 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 7,535$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 149 | 0.7%1 W · 148 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 7,300$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.1 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 6,996$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.93 | 416 | 3.1%13 W · 403 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 6,326$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.87 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5527…5885backed Yes | 8c | 6,002$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeda…4acbbacked Yes | 6c | 5,918$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.55 | 142 | 2.1%3 W · 139 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed2e…41f7backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df2…01afbacked Yes | 6c | 5,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 84 | 11.9%10 W · 74 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 4cpaid | +599.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 3c | 4,959$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.27 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8907…d8e6backed Yes | 0c | 4,535$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 62 | 0%0 W · 62 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 3,731$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 292 | 2.1%6 W · 286 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 3c | 3,304$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.97 | 258 | 1.2%3 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 0c | 3,032$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 197 | 0%0 W · 197 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0e…524cbacked Yes | 0c | 3,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 60 | 13.3%8 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 3c | 2,963$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.34 | 268 | 3.4%9 W · 259 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa894…7607backed Yes | 2c | 2,799$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -51%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,611$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 137 | 3.6%5 W · 132 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…3469backed Yes | 7c | 2,061$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.71 | 86 | 1.2%1 W · 85 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…e2c0backed Yes | 7c | 2,000$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.57 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9851…1320backed Yes | 1c | 1,920$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 3c | 1,864$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.21 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…64aebacked Yes | 3c | 1,852$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.82 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21c6…927bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,778$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 167 | 2.4%4 W · 163 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f69…acb6backed Yes | 1c | 1,753$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 179 | 2.2%4 W · 175 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b73…30cabacked Yes | 4c | 1,699$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.52 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…c633backed Yes | 1c | 1,605$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 66 | 0%0 W · 66 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,400$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 59 | 0%0 W · 59 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x127d…475abacked Yes | 5c | 1,397$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 1c | 1,200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 98 | 5.1%5 W · 93 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc8…6960backed Yes | 5c | 1,192$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…1ad9backed Yes | 7c | 1,116$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.11 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 17cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c88…9f1bbacked Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55e4…f67dbacked Yes | 4c | 952.38$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce2d…f266backed Yes | 7c | 850$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x201f…c10cbacked Yes | 3c | 800$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd86c…d09abacked Yes | 7c | 800$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 5cpaid | +131.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefb6…7b02backed Yes | 2c | 800$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb803…b265backed Yes | 2c | 625$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6388…bf12backed Yes | 8c | 594.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c4…a051backed Yes | 10c | 466.67$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb541…55f5backed Yes | 6c | 420$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a3…81fabacked Yes | 5c | 419.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0d…8565backed Yes | 7c | 357.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa19…2486backed Yes | 9c | 301.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e1…5a0bbacked Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37c2…64e0backed Yes | 8c | 286.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb5…f4d4backed Yes | 5c | 271.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x578f…f112backed Yes | 6c | 258.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc288…3480backed Yes | 6c | 180.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +5.1wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in March?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in March?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in March?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in March?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $400 in March?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $600 in March?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $800 in March?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in March?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in March?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in March?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in March?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in March?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in March?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in March?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.