TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xc924…8276

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
47
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Valorant, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Valorant at 57 out of 100; worst Crypto Milestones at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-89.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.5
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.12
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$118.72
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$62.09
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.37
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 April 20-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$97.1
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 April 20-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.2
Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 April 13-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.2
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 April 6-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.38
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 March 30-April 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$29
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 March 30-April 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$69.32
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 March 30-April 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$129.8
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.7
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.35
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$106.33
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.03
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.32
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 March 23-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$9
All 18 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Mar 15, 2026, EDT1450%7 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-1.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Valorant — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Map Handicap: PR (-2.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+2.5)backed Nongshim RedForce · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$10.5
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoffsbacked Nongshim RedForce · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+115.2%+$48.18
Valorant: NRG vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winnerbacked NRG · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+56.9%+$7.25
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs NRG - Map 2 Winnerbacked Nongshim RedForce · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+65.3%+$7.9
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Group Stagebacked G2 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+31.6%+$7.2
Valorant: G2 Esports vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winnerbacked G2 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10.2
Valorant: MIBR vs NRG (BO5) - VCT Americas Kickoff Playoffsbacked MIBR · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$94.1
Valorant: T1 vs Rex Regum Qeon (BO5) - VCT Pacific Kickoff Playoffsbacked Rex Regum Qeon · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$16.14
Valorant: Paper Rex vs DetonatioN FocusMe (BO3) - VCT Pacific Kickoff Playoffsbacked DetonatioN FocusMe · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$12.15
Valorant: Gentle Mates vs BBL Esports (BO5) - VCT EMEA Kickoff Playoffsbacked BBL Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+321.7%+$53.39
Valorant: Fnatic vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Kickoff Playoffsbacked Team Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$15.55
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Rex Regum Qeon (BO5) - VCT Pacific Kickoff Playoffsbacked Rex Regum Qeon · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$36.75
Valorant: DetonatioN FocusMe vs T1 (BO3) - VCT Pacific Kickoff Playoffsbacked DetonatioN FocusMe · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$14.7
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Pacific Kickoff Playoffsbacked Paper Rex · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+66.5%+$7.99
All 14 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST40%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST40%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Feb 13, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.95per pick5cpaid+1,793.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+1,793.9%+$217.86
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $20 million?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$12.83
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 29, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 17, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.07
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.