Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 March 23-29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c31273aa745a65bd3f71985da5116bf7dd98ed5e2299607125672e3633431ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,681
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,418
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,681 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x965d…3a0abacked Yes | 59c | 9,170$5,428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,742.53 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.21per pick | 60cpaid | +23%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed No | 46c | 7,232$3,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,291.51 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 39c | 5,256$2,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,218.75 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43a6…8b32backed No | 69c | 1,298$898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$897.79 | 54 | 70.4%38 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes | 32c | 1,258$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$850.4 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d35…dde1backed No | 49c | 811.97$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 22c | 713.85$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.34 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 7c | 600$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe791…06afbacked No | 43c | 536.57$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -57%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae9e…cfe1backed Yes | 48c | 408.27$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.58 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7be7…9700backed No | 48c | 403.69$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.77 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf000…5667backed No | 40c | 392.58$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.24 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa59…75ecbacked Yes | 37c | 305.43$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.69 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae94…7efbbacked No | 63c | 250$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.5 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f69…acb6backed No | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 179 | 2.2%4 W · 175 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…8748backed No | 8c | 199.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 71 | 12.7%9 W · 62 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21c6…927bbacked No | 9c | 199.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 167 | 2.4%4 W · 163 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabe5…a37bbacked Yes | 47c | 193.79$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.71 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x202e…f2cabacked Yes | 57c | 140.3$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf07…1b86backed No | 78c | 129.49$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b7…6b01backed No | 45c | 92.75$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…85c6backed Yes | 59c | 82.27$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.73 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34a1…0847backed No | 39c | 70.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +78%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 61c | 66.23$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.63 | 165 | 37.6%62 W · 103 L | -21.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7d…e1a5backed No | 46c | 63.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b09…015cbacked Yes | 26c | 52.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.11 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8722…11d0backed Yes | 54c | 49.42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9112…7797backed Yes | 44c | 49.39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.66 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d65…c693backed Yes | 67c | 36.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94e5…52bebacked No | 32c | 31.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e1…6579backed Yes | 57c | 29.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 53c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 61 | 11.5%7 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…2b4abacked No | 73c | 26.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0aa…13b3backed Yes | 78c | 25.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa791…c0d2backed Yes | 70c | 22.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc924…8276backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -89.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd77…ef21backed Yes | 56c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 March 23-29?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 March 23-29?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 March 23-29?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 March 23-29?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 March 23-29?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 March 23-29?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,200 March 23-29?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,300 March 23-29?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,400 March 23-29?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,500 March 23-29?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,600 March 23-29?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,700 March 23-29?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,800 March 23-29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.