Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 March 23-29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4eb43fbca0e6dc8641f735f97b88e53e7ec1eb72a8d22c03b9c32678d5e388ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,821
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,828
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,821 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 27c | 8,639$2,374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,373.56 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 14c | 8,102$1,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,105.65 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cce…6e85backed Yes | 10c | 2,999$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.89 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x187f…a85bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,675$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.17 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 76c | 1,505$1,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.06 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e2…282fbacked Yes | 27c | 1,060$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.4 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…3ce1backed Yes | 10c | 1,045$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.52 | 137 | 9.5%13 W · 124 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 15c | 906.03$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.9 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd4…a533backed Yes | 2c | 830.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f69…acb6backed Yes | 8c | 829.61$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.15 | 179 | 2.2%4 W · 175 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2826…f448backed Yes | 12c | 802.94$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.41 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 769.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 212 | 6.6%14 W · 198 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 7c | 754.09$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.07 | 258 | 1.2%3 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cc…0540backed Yes | 2c | 700$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c6…927bbacked Yes | 7c | 655.73$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.11 | 167 | 2.4%4 W · 163 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 8c | 562.73$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.02 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 9c | 526.35$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.11 | 137 | 3.6%5 W · 132 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae9e…cfe1backed No | 76c | 458.36$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.24 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 13c | 456.95$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.67 | 61 | 11.5%7 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb37b…5186backed Yes | 14c | 440.97$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.69 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xacca…08b1backed Yes | 53c | 400$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +81%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 13c | 359.61$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.34 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 13c | 345.45$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.95 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd984…18dfbacked Yes | 19c | 306.22$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.27 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa29b…a0b8backed Yes | 50c | 290.82$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.31 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf000…5667backed No | 78c | 198.37$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.64 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…85c6backed Yes | 21c | 140.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 84 | 70.2%59 W · 25 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca0c…b9b6backed No | 59c | 77.68$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.65 | 82 | 35.4%29 W · 53 L | +8.1wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbf07…1b86backed No | 69c | 72.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd77…ef21backed No | 63c | 68.17$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.32 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd895…ad02backed No | 58c | 34.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x850f…abb8backed No | 77c | 19.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked No | 75c | 13.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a58…5c26backed No | 76c | 13.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 March 23-29?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 March 23-29?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 March 23-29?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 March 23-29?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 March 23-29?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 March 23-29?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,200 March 23-29?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,300 March 23-29?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,400 March 23-29?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,500 March 23-29?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,600 March 23-29?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,700 March 23-29?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,800 March 23-29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.