Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7cd8c41a83f807b2036dfe5727de7ebe3848a076b2e00342a2585581136b1996
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $436,194
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $409,014
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $436,194 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x530e…cc11backed Yes | 10c | 62,090$5,933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,933.29 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | +6.6wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | +143.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa701…47cdbacked No | 80c | 27,272$21,764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,508.25 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 67cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f62…2ce6backed Yes | 12c | 20,000$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,399.99 | 103 | 13.6%14 W · 89 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f55…e9a4backed Yes | 7c | 14,686$1,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,039.44 | 142 | 13.4%19 W · 123 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe4…01b7backed Yes | 13c | 14,286$1,856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,856.01 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf705…3ca7backed Yes | 7c | 13,534$922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$921.73 | 351 | 23.9%84 W · 267 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 11,926$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 149 | 0.7%1 W · 148 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd359…d361backed Yes | 5c | 11,912$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.91 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe551…7382backed Yes | 0c | 6,690$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 2cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8907…d8e6backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 62 | 0%0 W · 62 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5a…e606backed Yes | 23c | 5,000$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x253b…0ae7backed Yes | 5c | 3,199$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.76 | 68 | 16.2%11 W · 57 L | +8.3wins | +0.12per pick | 4cpaid | +273.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 2c | 2,954$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.27 | 416 | 3.1%13 W · 403 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 0c | 2,847$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed2e…41f7backed Yes | 2c | 2,780$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes | 10c | 2,553$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.27 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x465c…e94dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,288$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.33 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dde…2217backed Yes | 5c | 2,196$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.36 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60c1…01ccbacked Yes | 11c | 2,154$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.91 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7df2…01afbacked Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 84 | 11.9%10 W · 74 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 4cpaid | +599.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes | 1c | 1,786$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 40 | 2.5%1 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -94.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 10c | 1,710$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f34…7684backed Yes | 5c | 1,691$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.01 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 13c | 1,614$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.35 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x969b…db70backed Yes | 1c | 1,559$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 1,403$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.88 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3526…aababacked Yes | 1c | 1,339$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +8.0wins | +0.15per pick | 11cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x709b…0a0abacked Yes | 10c | 1,283$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.93 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e7…8b69backed No | 77c | 1,258$967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f69…acb6backed Yes | 5c | 1,038$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.18 | 179 | 2.2%4 W · 175 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c6…927bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,019$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.97 | 167 | 2.4%4 W · 163 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x276b…9116backed Yes | 5c | 1,014$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.58 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -90.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759e…70e3backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc924…8276backed Yes | 7c | 953.36$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.09 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -89.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5c…3036backed Yes | 14c | 900$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 102 | 2%2 W · 100 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -91.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 4c | 852.06$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 258 | 1.2%3 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…fd47backed Yes | 2c | 849.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x998a…b117backed Yes | 14c | 719.7$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.76 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -77%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41f…19d2backed Yes | 2c | 654.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf0…4046backed Yes | 2c | 649.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0e…524cbacked Yes | 10c | 606.62$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.79 | 60 | 13.3%8 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…4524backed Yes | 8c | 524.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.41 | 162 | 53.7%87 W · 75 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed8b…e92cbacked Yes | 2c | 515.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff8…1479backed No | 80c | 485.6$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94f8…659abacked No | 80c | 485.6$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce2d…f266backed Yes | 22c | 484.19$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.52 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…64aebacked Yes | 2c | 474.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e44…9863backed Yes | 20c | 442.4$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e15…b101backed Yes | 14c | 432.43$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.61 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d5…b66cbacked Yes | 15c | 402.2$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.46 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb803…b265backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe26b…40dfbacked Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e6…bc73backed Yes | 12c | 400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 15c | 400$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25db…28debacked Yes | 13c | 390$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5692…07e1backed Yes | 22c | 374.04$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…7b15backed Yes | 5c | 373.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb48a…1bc5backed Yes | 22c | 366.57$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65cd…7ab4backed Yes | 22c | 360.32$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54af…a9efbacked Yes | 25c | 356.8$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.2 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Yes | 16c | 299.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | +22.9wins | +0.22per pick | 24cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 4c | 297.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc15a…9c74backed Yes | 24c | 290.32$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce83…5b97backed No | 77c | 251.14$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.76 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 73cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd86c…d09abacked Yes | 5c | 215.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 5cpaid | +131.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x694d…c5a4backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0f…2f40backed Yes | 22c | 188.19$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…8977backed Yes | 17c | 181.28$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43a6…8b32backed No | 79c | 161.81$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.98 | 54 | 70.4%38 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62fa…d16cbacked Yes | 11c | 158.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9f…c9c6backed Yes | 16c | 149.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…e4bcbacked Yes | 17c | 125.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | -5.7wins | -0.15per pick | 22cpaid | -69%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6434…9b2dbacked Yes | 18c | 125.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2034…16dfbacked Yes | 14c | 87.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x227d…1a26backed Yes | 21c | 84.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 90 | 63.3%57 W · 33 L | +13.8wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9c79…d04dbacked Yes | 22c | 80.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +210.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7108…bfeabacked No | 80c | 60.7$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2861…e928backed No | 79c | 19.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 77cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadbf…d83ebacked No | 80c | 16.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.24 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in April?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in April?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in April?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $800 in April?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in April?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in April?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in April?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in April?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in April?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in April?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in April?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.