Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb110da85edfa0f693a99e9652c00188d55df81f01bd6513097fe3d88ec85e6b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $649,832
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $644,253
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $649,832 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf705…3ca7backed Yes | 4c | 46,238$1,822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,821.79 | 351 | 23.9%84 W · 267 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe4…01b7backed Yes | 5c | 33,143$1,765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,764.8 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 4c | 19,508$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.71 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5c…3036backed Yes | 4c | 18,300$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652 | 102 | 2%2 W · 100 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -91.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c5…50cdbacked Yes | 5c | 17,600$863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$863.08 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +103.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9875…b23fbacked Yes | 0c | 14,580$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83e8…7b89backed Yes | 5c | 12,030$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.67 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 5c | 12,021$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.06 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…99d8backed Yes | 4c | 11,510$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2956…01cfbacked Yes | 4c | 10,768$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.93 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -80%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 5c | 9,696$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.23 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8907…d8e6backed Yes | 0c | 9,281$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 62 | 0%0 W · 62 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0d…d142backed Yes | 5c | 8,515$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.65 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 5c | 8,444$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.6 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x253b…0ae7backed Yes | 4c | 7,051$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.1 | 68 | 16.2%11 W · 57 L | +8.3wins | +0.12per pick | 4cpaid | +273.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 6,811$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 149 | 0.7%1 W · 148 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa1…676dbacked Yes | 3c | 5,472$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.06 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x416e…a47fbacked Yes | 3c | 5,212$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63ca…9265backed Yes | 4c | 4,502$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.39 | 72 | 13.9%10 W · 62 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 3c | 4,232$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.45 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e8…5963backed Yes | 3c | 3,874$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe157…51ebbacked Yes | 2c | 3,551$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.91 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 2,963$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.99 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c6…927bbacked Yes | 4c | 2,898$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.82 | 167 | 2.4%4 W · 163 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee0…1006backed Yes | 3c | 2,872$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.17 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f69…acb6backed Yes | 4c | 2,862$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.59 | 179 | 2.2%4 W · 175 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,859$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa614…6fc8backed Yes | 3c | 2,678$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.07 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x074d…0198backed Yes | 3c | 2,532$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.09 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 4c | 2,432$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.91 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8997…eb15backed Yes | 6c | 2,254$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fef…4849backed Yes | 2c | 1,961$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.45 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce00…7ce0backed Yes | 4c | 1,952$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +81%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cb…cf73backed Yes | 5c | 1,802$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8a…e4cdbacked Yes | 6c | 1,730$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.38 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 2c | 1,600$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 416 | 3.1%13 W · 403 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 4c | 1,568$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.6 | 258 | 1.2%3 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…e231backed Yes | 4c | 1,244$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.24 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd249…9063backed Yes | 2c | 1,167$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3548…14dabacked Yes | 5c | 1,075$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.78 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…cbd5backed Yes | 5c | 1,022$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.64 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1c…c3b0backed Yes | 5c | 1,020$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.28 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29ea…701ebacked Yes | 4c | 956.62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf1…d6a8backed Yes | 2c | 924.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 5cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17a2…d907backed Yes | 2c | 924.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…1d71backed Yes | 5c | 892.06$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.15 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 4c | 886.77$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 89 | 19.1%17 W · 72 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd86c…d09abacked Yes | 2c | 841.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 5cpaid | +131.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c96…1cc1backed Yes | 3c | 794.05$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 2c | 781.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 59 | 0%0 W · 59 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f05…7920backed Yes | 6c | 776.88$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40c…4497backed Yes | 3c | 759.61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…c633backed Yes | 2c | 759$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 66 | 0%0 W · 66 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf56…97edbacked Yes | 2c | 732.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88fc…900ebacked Yes | 6c | 700$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 4c | 600$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 137 | 3.6%5 W · 132 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 2c | 515.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a84…7101backed Yes | 4c | 483.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +5.7wins | +0.16per pick | 12cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed Yes | 6c | 458.37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 3c | 450.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff3…6eccbacked Yes | 5c | 447.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f00…e8dbbacked Yes | 4c | 402.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c06…c721backed Yes | 3c | 395.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0f…2f40backed Yes | 3c | 377.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x091a…db09backed Yes | 3c | 374.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c5…a855backed Yes | 4c | 344.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e5…1ed7backed Yes | 3c | 332.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…e4bcbacked Yes | 7c | 312.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | -5.7wins | -0.15per pick | 22cpaid | -69%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b3…b65bbacked Yes | 6c | 302.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…9df0backed Yes | 6c | 292.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf16…9c6fbacked Yes | 5c | 263.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c65…dcf7backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +203%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedaf…ff3cbacked Yes | 6c | 229.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd966…af98backed Yes | 8c | 219.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…b823backed Yes | 5c | 219.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe36a…ae58backed Yes | 6c | 211.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d8…b773backed Yes | 8c | 166.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in April?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in April?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in April?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in April?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $800 in April?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in April?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in April?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in April?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in April?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in April?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in April?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.