Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3bdec8ed745d140d023e9b134976636b51dfa0fba020e15cbe3ad565da3d271
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $252,097
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $247,347
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $252,097 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x58c2…67a3backed Yes | 5c | 32,265$1,762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,762.4 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f62…2ce6backed Yes | 4c | 20,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 103 | 13.6%14 W · 89 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 8,512$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.26 | 149 | 0.7%1 W · 148 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f55…e9a4backed Yes | 2c | 7,585$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.85 | 142 | 13.4%19 W · 123 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed2e…41f7backed Yes | 2c | 7,429$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.16 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7b…e9ebbacked Yes | 2c | 5,925$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.59 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5c…3036backed Yes | 5c | 5,000$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254 | 102 | 2%2 W · 100 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -91.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2802…f2f5backed Yes | 1c | 4,970$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.19 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf705…3ca7backed Yes | 1c | 4,099$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.09 | 351 | 23.9%84 W · 267 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba58…8842backed Yes | 2c | 3,815$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.92 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x253b…0ae7backed Yes | 6c | 2,883$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.98 | 68 | 16.2%11 W · 57 L | +8.3wins | +0.12per pick | 4cpaid | +273.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x75af…503dbacked Yes | 10c | 2,838$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa631…7651backed Yes | 1c | 2,364$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 2c | 2,104$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.01 | 416 | 3.1%13 W · 403 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d8…2922backed Yes | 1c | 2,090$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed8b…e92cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,824$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25db…28debacked Yes | 5c | 1,712$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.28 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…fd47backed Yes | 1c | 1,543$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60c1…01ccbacked Yes | 5c | 1,364$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.84 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21c6…927bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,238$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 167 | 2.4%4 W · 163 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…e2c0backed Yes | 2c | 1,209$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Yes | 2c | 1,172$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 4c | 1,144$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 1,046$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.15 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0579…1993backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes | 5c | 999.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f69…acb6backed Yes | 3c | 927.89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 179 | 2.2%4 W · 175 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dde…2217backed Yes | 6c | 786.82$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.21 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0f…2f40backed Yes | 7c | 664.44$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.69 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 3c | 634.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 258 | 1.2%3 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb803…b265backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c70…9043backed Yes | 6c | 462.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…e4bcbacked Yes | 5c | 359.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | -5.7wins | -0.15per pick | 22cpaid | -69%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x998a…b117backed Yes | 9c | 325.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -77%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3526…aababacked Yes | 5c | 310.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +8.0wins | +0.15per pick | 11cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x807d…76dcbacked Yes | 9c | 278.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 5c | 242.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 8c | 173.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 137 | 3.6%5 W · 132 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8afb…d69cbacked Yes | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in April?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in April?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in April?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $800 in April?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in April?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in April?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in April?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in April?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in April?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in April?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in April?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.