TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: Paper Rex vs DetonatioN FocusMe (BO3) - VCT Pacific Kickoff Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Paper Rexof Paper Rex, DetonatioN FocusMe
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$76,461
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$84,760

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,461 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1eb0…d25bbacked Paper Rex75c30,758$22,956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,802.156365.1%41 W · 22 L+6.3wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+15.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked DetonatioN FocusMe25c13,926$3,423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,422.6311433.3%38 W · 76 L-5.2wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-34%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed DetonatioN FocusMe29c8,892$2,606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,605.5541537.1%154 W · 261 L-26.8wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-31.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed DetonatioN FocusMe28c5,504$1,516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,516.0924946.2%115 W · 134 L-0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Paper Rex73c4,115$2,988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,126.5193148.1%448 W · 483 L-11.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed DetonatioN FocusMe34c3,320$1,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,118.6626634.6%92 W · 174 L-13.9wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-30.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x13d6…926ebacked DetonatioN FocusMe18c3,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5403246.9%15 W · 17 L+4.0wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+37.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed DetonatioN FocusMe26c2,666$703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702.9277929.5%230 W · 549 L-72.4wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-39%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked DetonatioN FocusMe29c1,936$566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.9328541.1%117 W · 168 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed DetonatioN FocusMe24c1,810$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.346131.1%19 W · 42 L-6.9wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-35.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked DetonatioN FocusMe27c1,699$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.726738.2%102 W · 165 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8da1…339ebacked DetonatioN FocusMe28c1,476$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.275040%20 W · 30 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-16.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c8f…d581backed DetonatioN FocusMe12c1,200$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.236418.8%12 W · 52 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-38.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d91…bb2abacked Paper Rex73c1,025$748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.17659.2%45 W · 31 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed DetonatioN FocusMe30c1,009$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.0170251.3%360 W · 342 L+7.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed DetonatioN FocusMe28c999.99$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28028541.1%117 W · 168 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed DetonatioN FocusMe18c900$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1628638.4%33 W · 53 L-7.5wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-26.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa632…4c96backed DetonatioN FocusMe29c775.86$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2251154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+22.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked DetonatioN FocusMe26c740$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.4110840.7%44 W · 64 L-7.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-29.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x19dc…4b3fbacked Paper Rex71c639.44$454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.44875%6 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+21.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed DetonatioN FocusMe39c637$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.68835.2%31 W · 57 L-9.6wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-32.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2560…0b02backed Paper Rex72c560.33$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.748751.7%45 W · 42 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xce66…59c4backed Paper Rex72c555.69$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed DetonatioN FocusMe29c499.99$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14526050%130 W · 130 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d70…46f8backed Paper Rex71c422.52$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.531952.6%10 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0fbc…d6a4backed Paper Rex73c410.6$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.861471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.16per pick55cpaid+28.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9b5f…3492backed DetonatioN FocusMe30c410$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12334253.2%182 W · 160 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x988d…9899backed Paper Rex71c370.75$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.529644.8%43 W · 53 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-10.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xad72…4f5ebacked Paper Rex67c361.3$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.9119157.1%109 W · 82 L+23.4wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+26.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x1cd1…c0bdbacked DetonatioN FocusMe14c360$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.75616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-36.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38ce…5431backed Paper Rex71c352.11$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.114560%27 W · 18 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf83a…2ef8backed DetonatioN FocusMe14c349$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0783…73dbbacked DetonatioN FocusMe10c320$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick20cpaid-34.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked Paper Rex75c300.01$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.2955348.3%267 W · 286 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x133b…20a3backed Paper Rex68c300$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae35…5dd3backed Paper Rex73c300$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$815837.9%22 W · 36 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf333…038cbacked Paper Rex75c300$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$753545.7%16 W · 19 L-4.3wins-0.12per pick58cpaid-25.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xae6f…a3aabacked DetonatioN FocusMe18c300$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-16.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c9e…bba8backed DetonatioN FocusMe42c290$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.46560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed Paper Rex74c280.46$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7439545.8%181 W · 214 L-1.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba50…ad0bbacked Paper Rex73c273.97$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.9724457.8%141 W · 103 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+11.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc128…5b3abacked Paper Rex67c270.48$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.487454.1%40 W · 34 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+2.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked Paper Rex73c263.39$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.1133753.1%179 W · 158 L+16.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4f93…d39cbacked DetonatioN FocusMe17c236.67$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+66.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed DetonatioN FocusMe25c228.99$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.6517537.7%66 W · 109 L-14.5wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-29.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x67bb…d11fbacked DetonatioN FocusMe27c210.77$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.641513.3%2 W · 13 L-4.1wins-0.27per pick41cpaid-73.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0fd7…6c52backed DetonatioN FocusMe28c207.85$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.183129%9 W · 22 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-25.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Paper Rex73c205$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.3525556.1%143 W · 112 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+11.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc924…8276backed DetonatioN FocusMe7c179.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.151450%7 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-1.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4328…11d2backed DetonatioN FocusMe22c177.3$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.116051.7%31 W · 29 L+6.1wins+0.10per pick41cpaid+10.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcf0c…2265backed Paper Rex73c173.86$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.9410455.8%58 W · 46 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c55…84cebacked Paper Rex72c171.86$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.9515042%63 W · 87 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b1…19bbbacked Paper Rex72c166.18$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.81163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dc0…699abacked Paper Rex62c150$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5730828.2%87 W · 221 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f4b…69debacked Paper Rex68c146.65$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.6551948.4%251 W · 268 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3eee…e8b6backed Paper Rex73c145$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.64156.1%23 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid+7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff5e…9c6ebacked Paper Rex70c144.29$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.292763%17 W · 10 L+3.4wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+17.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe454…8b7dbacked Paper Rex70c142.83$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.858058.8%47 W · 33 L-4.7wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xced8…221ebacked DetonatioN FocusMe27c139.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.825745.9%118 W · 139 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Paper Rex74c138$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.552050%260 W · 260 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82b9…c6cebacked Paper Rex73c136.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.996366.7%42 W · 21 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x58a5…a18ebacked DetonatioN FocusMe29c135$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked Paper Rex75c133.53$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.5310460.6%63 W · 41 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x833c…42b4backed DetonatioN FocusMe19c131.58$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255927.1%16 W · 43 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-23.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7eaf…bb0cbacked DetonatioN FocusMe29c115.99$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.281040%4 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed DetonatioN FocusMe23c110$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7227411.3%31 W · 243 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-34.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked DetonatioN FocusMe29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2914037.9%53 W · 87 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xace9…f74abacked Paper Rex79c99.99$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-57.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1445…614abacked Paper Rex70c87.44$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.3212552.8%66 W · 59 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe8d…8592backed Paper Rex73c82.74$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.741668.8%11 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb27…8be8backed Paper Rex79c80.41$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.8714757.8%85 W · 62 L+13.3wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+17.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7386…b1debacked DetonatioN FocusMe31c79.55$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc79…a0a8backed DetonatioN FocusMe18c78.32$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1825%2 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked DetonatioN FocusMe24c72.46$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.421050%5 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+35.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5747…7fdfbacked Paper Rex73c68.63$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.6362856.4%354 W · 274 L-10.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5558…227bbacked Paper Rex49c65$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338333.7%28 W · 55 L-4.8wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-30%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x81c0…8b96backed DetonatioN FocusMe24c59.81$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.35742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25c8…6023backed Paper Rex70c58.2$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.46742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-34.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa550…d2e0backed Paper Rex71c50.7$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.71442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed DetonatioN FocusMe28c50.61$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.332450%12 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed DetonatioN FocusMe32c50.23$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8357517.7%102 W · 473 L-71.7wins-0.12per pick30cpaid-42.2%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x3e5b…0324backed DetonatioN FocusMe28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1412151.2%62 W · 59 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e0e…8763backed DetonatioN FocusMe29c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.511056.4%62 W · 48 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7873…db3ebacked Paper Rex71c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.52100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick66cpaid+53.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fa7…089dbacked Paper Rex71c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.53847.4%18 W · 20 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a91…0075backed DetonatioN FocusMe30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b3c…e6cabacked Paper Rex71c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.51758.8%10 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Paper Rex45c45$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.75250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid+11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8666…a368backed DetonatioN FocusMe28c43.32$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.131241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8870…72a2backed Paper Rex73c43.14$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.65250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-31.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xec4f…a438backed Paper Rex73c41.3$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.32951.7%15 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+14.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8594…7eedbacked Paper Rex73c41.1$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.1540%2 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick64cpaid-47.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed Paper Rex69c32.5$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.0714447.2%68 W · 76 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed DetonatioN FocusMe40c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.91833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.8wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-39.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa04e…3550backed Paper Rex73c26$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.02366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xded3…b470backed Paper Rex70c25.79$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.74560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-3.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x22cc…8aeabacked Paper Rex67c23.85$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.872857.1%16 W · 12 L+3.5wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+16.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0ddd…5366backed Paper Rex75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54949%24 W · 25 L-5.1wins-0.10per pick59cpaid-21.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfebc…0194backed Paper Rex70c18$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.41681.3%13 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.17per pick64cpaid+26.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe33b…6de8backed Paper Rex69c17.13$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.34540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-23.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.