Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 April 6-12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58f25b1eb6e07137fdeb0c511d5f13abb30cf73ec7e01fccd5db6488523646de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $135,036
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $151,447
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $135,036 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xab51…2473backed Yes | 4c | 33,000$1,419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,419 | 118 | 13.6%16 W · 102 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 4cpaid | +281.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x58b3…653cbacked Yes | 2c | 18,827$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.91 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc250…8d6ebacked No | 67c | 2,617$1,744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$872.59 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 73cpaid | -12%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 22c | 1,799$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.55 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c6b4backed Yes | 2c | 1,493$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb37b…5186backed No | 56c | 1,263$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.42 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf632…02aabacked Yes | 2c | 1,261$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 3c | 1,194$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 986.23$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.89 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81a5…5e5ebacked Yes | 4c | 809.42$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.61 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -82.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f69…acb6backed Yes | 4c | 686.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 179 | 2.2%4 W · 175 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09fd…fcafbacked Yes | 11c | 681.82$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +106.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c6…927bbacked Yes | 4c | 556.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 167 | 2.4%4 W · 163 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x911a…3625backed Yes | 4c | 512.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x694d…c5a4backed Yes | 42c | 502.28$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.43 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 5c | 500$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 258 | 1.2%3 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f55…e9a4backed Yes | 7c | 487.87$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 142 | 13.4%19 W · 123 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf125…4ba0backed Yes | 6c | 450.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5490…1806backed Yes | 4c | 293.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c3…897bbacked Yes | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd859…38c5backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 143 | 7.7%11 W · 132 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…a096backed No | 41c | 200$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 67cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed Yes | 22c | 182.94$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.69 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc924…8276backed Yes | 14c | 149.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -89.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41da…f8e8backed Yes | 8c | 130.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 84 | 70.2%59 W · 25 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bf…a661backed No | 50c | 96.51$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb693…6ebcbacked Yes | 46c | 94$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.38 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c92…3dc1backed Yes | 39c | 80$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x971c…2712backed No | 40c | 80$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11f2…8fe1backed No | 51c | 52.12$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb4…0425backed No | 58c | 34.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc5…94eabacked No | 50c | 25.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 53c | 25.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22c2…2324backed No | 64c | 22.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked No | 67c | 18.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 April 6-12?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 April 6-12?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 April 6-12?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 April 6-12?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 April 6-12?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,200 April 6-12?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,300 April 6-12?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,400 April 6-12?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,500 April 6-12?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,600 April 6-12?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,700 April 6-12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.