Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 April 6-12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3ad93e6c08fd81d87742ef367d6fef5009467b501ecb65eee87372bb1fbbd9d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $134,213
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $125,619
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $134,213 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb37b…5186backed Yes | 35c | 16,746$5,941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,805.49 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 43c | 8,021$3,423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,598.56 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed No | 60c | 3,218$1,915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,915.45 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4c…e682backed Yes | 32c | 2,706$866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,840.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…4524backed Yes | 49c | 2,377$1,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,209.54 | 162 | 53.7%87 W · 75 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes | 36c | 2,300$816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,483.42 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…783bbacked No | 27c | 2,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x104a…5b05backed Yes | 39c | 1,638$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999.26 | 80 | 17.5%14 W · 66 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6294…33f3backed No | 25c | 1,456$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed No | 72c | 880.99$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.21 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 60cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 16c | 800$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 212 | 6.6%14 W · 198 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…246ebacked No | 54c | 779$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.82 | 137 | 70.1%96 W · 41 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b7a…8304backed No | 61c | 483.58$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.82 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x187f…a85bbacked Yes | 38c | 452.89$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.79 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x807d…76dcbacked No | 29c | 395.01$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.55 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37ba…40ecbacked Yes | 41c | 330.4$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +141.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 56c | 327.71$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.84 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5f…634dbacked No | 62c | 300$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa772…05efbacked No | 17c | 274.5$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.67 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6306…852abacked Yes | 50c | 273.69$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.28 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2387…ffb4backed No | 35c | 272.06$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 36c | 236.76$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.73 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed No | 76c | 218.94$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.39 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a70…b3cbbacked No | 67c | 200$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced4…5055backed Yes | 25c | 198.89$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.15 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f8…d675backed No | 23c | 193.29$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.46 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bf…a661backed No | 78c | 186.22$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b4…cf0bbacked No | 51c | 182.24$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0de…5c73backed Yes | 25c | 180.33$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +304.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb693…6ebcbacked Yes | 21c | 161$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.88 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac63…1d1abacked No | 45c | 158.17$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2464…44a1backed No | 70c | 153.06$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.04 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa956…666fbacked Yes | 72c | 133.29$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.32 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb673…0555backed No | 62c | 100.63$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.39 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…98e3backed Yes | 48c | 89.42$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.25 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 36cpaid | +131.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf14…6122backed Yes | 27c | 85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +264%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8de…a2b8backed Yes | 24c | 70.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x237e…fb35backed Yes | 26c | 68.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +289.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd895…ad02backed Yes | 42c | 66.05$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.31 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe984…b407backed No | 62c | 60.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.81 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x343f…bb4dbacked No | 63c | 60.57$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e46…0602backed Yes | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7448…c8fabacked No | 42c | 55.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f1…a73dbacked Yes | 42c | 52.16$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +140.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2004…914abacked No | 48c | 50.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.37per pick | 51cpaid | -82%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa361…3ea7backed No | 75c | 48.52$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cc49backed No | 79c | 48.49$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.31 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x694d…c5a4backed Yes | 39c | 46.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.53 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4d79…8685backed Yes | 23c | 44.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x227d…1a26backed No | 53c | 35.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 90 | 63.3%57 W · 33 L | +13.8wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xea93…05ccbacked Yes | 54c | 34.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 58c | 33.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97c5…8492backed Yes | 44c | 31.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7770…f99bbacked No | 56c | 30.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b01…5da3backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f17…0cfcbacked Yes | 55c | 29.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7d…e1a5backed Yes | 42c | 26.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf16…9c6fbacked Yes | 80c | 26.59$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x651f…5857backed No | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Yes | 76c | 22.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a28…0e02backed No | 63c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 62cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe46…cb39backed No | 65c | 21.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 59cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7627…9652backed No | 71c | 21.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4d…add5backed No | 72c | 20.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked No | 66c | 20.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7e…1532backed No | 56c | 19.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d75…b263backed Yes | 54c | 19.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x097d…6f83backed Yes | 54c | 18.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 70c | 18.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 89 | 19.1%17 W · 72 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4346…f897backed No | 63c | 17.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94e5…52bebacked No | 75c | 17.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c69…1376backed No | 72c | 15.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $2,300 April 6-12?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 April 6-12?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 April 6-12?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 April 6-12?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 April 6-12?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 April 6-12?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,200 April 6-12?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,400 April 6-12?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,500 April 6-12?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,600 April 6-12?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,700 April 6-12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.