Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 April 6-12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xedc171d7833cf1e37af095f1f50329bfad887a493ee1323c1358bf8f3d27e9ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $115,042
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $126,814
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $115,042 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x104a…5b05backed Yes | 14c | 10,666$1,509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,509.09 | 80 | 17.5%14 W · 66 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1af1…7b88backed Yes | 19c | 6,179$1,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,145.83 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 7cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 15c | 2,804$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.66 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 18c | 1,792$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.46 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 8c | 1,747$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.82 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad45…b8c9backed Yes | 3c | 1,706$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 93 | 7.5%7 W · 86 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6306…852abacked Yes | 9c | 1,217$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.42 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 9c | 1,183$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.32 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed Yes | 10c | 887.54$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.01 | 118 | 13.6%16 W · 102 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 4cpaid | +281.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b7a…8304backed No | 72c | 771$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.47 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51a9…99b6backed Yes | 7c | 623.21$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…246ebacked No | 72c | 578$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.5 | 137 | 70.1%96 W · 41 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xced4…5055backed Yes | 5c | 472.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f69…acb6backed Yes | 7c | 401.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 179 | 2.2%4 W · 175 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5490…1806backed Yes | 6c | 353.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 7c | 331$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 258 | 1.2%3 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x203b…6f16backed Yes | 9c | 304.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 7c | 205.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 89 | 19.1%17 W · 72 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes | 7c | 201.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7de…41c5backed Yes | 11c | 155.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17cb…d67cbacked Yes | 33c | 131.01$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.23 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d44…d3b7backed Yes | 24c | 111.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a70…b3cbbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…a096backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 67cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68ed…fbddbacked No | 67c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef39…423bbacked No | 67c | 70$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb693…6ebcbacked Yes | 21c | 59.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbf16…9c6fbacked Yes | 19c | 56.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed Yes | 30c | 49.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked No | 66c | 36.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa361…3ea7backed No | 69c | 30.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a28…0e02backed No | 78c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 62cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0633…cc04backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813a…2691backed No | 71c | 15.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $2,400 April 6-12?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 April 6-12?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 April 6-12?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 April 6-12?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 April 6-12?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 April 6-12?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,200 April 6-12?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,300 April 6-12?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,500 April 6-12?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,600 April 6-12?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,700 April 6-12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.