Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 March 30-April 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x982db9f68531904f40f8e7fcd4d9abad9e4ede9da3ca837482ab1d5638ea8a05
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $128,121
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $128,389
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $128,121 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f55…e9a4backed Yes | 14c | 14,307$2,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,024.31 | 142 | 13.4%19 W · 123 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 15c | 13,896$2,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,148.66 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c6b4backed Yes | 2c | 13,850$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.59 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d58…1aeabacked Yes | 2c | 9,447$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x965d…3a0abacked No | 62c | 3,289$2,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,263.47 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.21per pick | 60cpaid | +23%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc250…8d6ebacked No | 69c | 3,230$2,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,009.59 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 73cpaid | -12%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 32c | 2,565$824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$823.52 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x090c…4deebacked Yes | 7c | 1,973$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.2 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 8c | 1,750$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.67 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 20c | 1,605$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.37 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f5c…046bbacked Yes | 3c | 932.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41cb…a5dfbacked Yes | 3c | 878.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +94%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc924…8276backed Yes | 16c | 799.99$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.8 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -89.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 2c | 689.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 197 | 0%0 W · 197 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 621.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad45…b8c9backed Yes | 3c | 563.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 93 | 7.5%7 W · 86 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc31b…cceabacked Yes | 4c | 501.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 3c | 446.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 258 | 1.2%3 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c0c…c312backed Yes | 3c | 370.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa361…3ea7backed No | 76c | 232.23$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 137 | 3.6%5 W · 132 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…a096backed No | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 67cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d90…f69fbacked Yes | 28c | 200$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -58%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bf…8ecebacked Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…13bfbacked Yes | 32c | 190$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 181 | 62.4%113 W · 68 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb693…6ebcbacked Yes | 33c | 151.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.38 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x905f…1dbebacked No | 69c | 138.4$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.92 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x244d…9b4cbacked Yes | 14c | 125.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6869…1528backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb37b…5186backed Yes | 22c | 99.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…33c1backed Yes | 13c | 91.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 103 | 15.5%16 W · 87 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa4…6ba3backed Yes | 12c | 87.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc18e…38afbacked No | 56c | 39.61$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5d…1f93backed Yes | 33c | 31.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked No | 70c | 19.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked No | 79c | 17.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.61 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 March 30-April 5?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 March 30-April 5?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 March 30-April 5?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 March 30-April 5?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,100 March 30-April 5?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,200 March 30-April 5?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,300 March 30-April 5?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,400 March 30-April 5?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,500 March 30-April 5?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,600 March 30-April 5?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,700 March 30-April 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.