Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 March 30-April 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9751d59c9a627926af8c5da3e1e9f25bd206acaa5088039ea9823b8114767f90
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $167,967
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $152,867
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $167,967 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d58…1aeabacked Yes | 2c | 36,316$852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$852.17 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 40c | 7,896$3,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,146.03 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x965d…3a0abacked No | 54c | 6,386$3,464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,922.11 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.21per pick | 60cpaid | +23%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad45…b8c9backed Yes | 2c | 5,520$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.13 | 93 | 7.5%7 W · 86 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes | 3c | 5,085$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.2 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f32…1532backed Yes | 6c | 4,474$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.3 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c35…feebbacked Yes | 1c | 4,190$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 45c | 4,002$1,819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,819.42 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,285$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.89 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 35c | 1,400$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$915.91 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 11c | 1,393$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.13 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6b…be95backed Yes | 46c | 1,006$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x807d…76dcbacked No | 45c | 984.58$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.55 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda4a…2184backed Yes | 78c | 853.66$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.86 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b7a…8304backed No | 60c | 736.43$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.34 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6707…f373backed Yes | 73c | 600.49$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…246ebacked No | 70c | 540.99$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.31 | 137 | 70.1%96 W · 41 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21c6…927bbacked Yes | 2c | 538.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 167 | 2.4%4 W · 163 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa772…05efbacked No | 38c | 483.46$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.44 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…a3fbbacked No | 70c | 427.83$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.35 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x547d…ea58backed Yes | 72c | 414.16$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.12 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f69…acb6backed Yes | 3c | 386.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 179 | 2.2%4 W · 175 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d65…7d4abacked No | 35c | 362.27$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 35cpaid | +189.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe2…fe9fbacked Yes | 5c | 345.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0abb…6ac7backed Yes | 5c | 300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd194…24b8backed Yes | 22c | 297.6$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.28 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…4524backed Yes | 11c | 259.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 162 | 53.7%87 W · 75 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb37b…5186backed Yes | 40c | 202.86$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.35 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76f3…ae51backed No | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…a096backed No | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 67cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41cb…a5dfbacked Yes | 52c | 191.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.71 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +94%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa922…2a3abacked No | 46c | 160.39$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a40…6d1bbacked Yes | 66c | 150$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed Yes | 18c | 137.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…13bfbacked Yes | 30c | 96.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 181 | 62.4%113 W · 68 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 12c | 86.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07e3…37b1backed Yes | 43c | 70.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.14 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe17b…04cbbacked Yes | 42c | 65.89$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x227d…1a26backed No | 42c | 65.46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.97 | 90 | 63.3%57 W · 33 L | +13.8wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb693…6ebcbacked Yes | 28c | 54.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b26…f009backed Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ce…3fc6backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.22per pick | 43cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x34a1…0847backed No | 43c | 46.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +78%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa813…04fbbacked No | 51c | 39.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 99 | 64.6%64 W · 35 L | +17.0wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cc49backed Yes | 69c | 38.21$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2464…44a1backed Yes | 59c | 37.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d75…b263backed No | 59c | 31.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc18e…38afbacked No | 71c | 31.43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x244d…9b4cbacked Yes | 61c | 30.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0633…cc04backed No | 67c | 29.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46c3…c594backed Yes | 72c | 27.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a7…3576backed No | 64c | 26.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 72cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd5…ed43backed Yes | 50c | 24.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe561…1d89backed No | 80c | 24.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x187f…a85bbacked No | 77c | 23.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Yes | 54c | 21.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccd6…4b03backed No | 53c | 20.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09d6…9205backed No | 57c | 20.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadff…9ab1backed Yes | 56c | 17.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7627…9652backed No | 71c | 16.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 80c | 12.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.58 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $2,200 March 30-April 5?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 March 30-April 5?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 March 30-April 5?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 March 30-April 5?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 March 30-April 5?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,100 March 30-April 5?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,300 March 30-April 5?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,400 March 30-April 5?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,500 March 30-April 5?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,600 March 30-April 5?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,700 March 30-April 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.