Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 March 30-April 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66f390ff16c6e96187a5d0e5ebe2d85c39559bb735346524050a74de39a756d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,929
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,793
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,929 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 64c | 6,019$3,857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,162.09 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…4524backed No | 35c | 2,623$922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$922.32 | 162 | 53.7%87 W · 75 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 78c | 1,278$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.83 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 3c | 800$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 212 | 6.6%14 W · 198 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cce…6e85backed No | 21c | 695.06$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.91 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 10c | 653.66$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.9 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090c…4deebacked No | 15c | 637.83$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.13 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…8748backed No | 15c | 505$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.75 | 71 | 12.7%9 W · 62 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21c6…927bbacked No | 9c | 499.72$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.97 | 167 | 2.4%4 W · 163 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x807d…76dcbacked No | 37c | 491.5$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.86 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f69…acb6backed No | 9c | 400$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 179 | 2.2%4 W · 175 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 8c | 299.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 10c | 222$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 258 | 1.2%3 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed No | 10c | 162.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccd6…4b03backed No | 15c | 158.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…13bfbacked Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 181 | 62.4%113 W · 68 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc1…50dbbacked No | 17c | 97.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb0b…564dbacked No | 19c | 92.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +112.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b7…f26bbacked No | 14c | 91.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46c1…2ba9backed No | 12c | 87.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc18e…38afbacked No | 36c | 61.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba3…9c01backed No | 28c | 50.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $2,100 March 30-April 5?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 March 30-April 5?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 March 30-April 5?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 March 30-April 5?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 March 30-April 5?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,200 March 30-April 5?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,300 March 30-April 5?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,400 March 30-April 5?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,500 March 30-April 5?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,600 March 30-April 5?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,700 March 30-April 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.