Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 April 20-26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc403fb2e6593104ad9cc4a3d2336e47a3ab8a523de8b061593e37655f439860
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,066
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,507
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,066 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x06dc…4524backed No | 75c | 17,142$12,921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,220.55 | 162 | 53.7%87 W · 75 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad45…b8c9backed Yes | 4c | 9,465$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.81 | 93 | 7.5%7 W · 86 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 30c | 4,630$1,391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,391.19 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecc7…1f71backed Yes | 3c | 2,827$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb77d…570abacked Yes | 6c | 1,423$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…246ebacked No | 57c | 1,166$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.08 | 137 | 70.1%96 W · 41 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4700…41cebacked Yes | 18c | 1,000$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb37b…5186backed No | 75c | 900.02$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.5 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc924…8276backed Yes | 15c | 629.99$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.1 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -89.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf6…5219backed Yes | 23c | 464.96$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.2 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc93e…7195backed Yes | 37c | 346.75$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.93 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…a096backed No | 69c | 300$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 67cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30cb…b901backed No | 51c | 298.6$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.39 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2503…9be5backed Yes | 9c | 249.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41a8…3d3dbacked No | 57c | 246.86$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.15 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7e…5db4backed Yes | 17c | 197.07$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc8…7a07backed Yes | 27c | 189.91$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.28 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -81%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6c…c5b8backed Yes | 6c | 187.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 2cpaid | +1,039%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97c5…8492backed No | 72c | 175.01$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26ea…2f4bbacked No | 70c | 116.18$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe36a…ae58backed Yes | 18c | 113.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfff1…ed1fbacked No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb4…0425backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5be2…8fa3backed No | 75c | 77.12$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa00c…3f41backed No | 54c | 69.17$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3a…3b17backed Yes | 37c | 59.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 30cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b95…9b87backed Yes | 38c | 43.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb693…6ebcbacked Yes | 32c | 33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdde9…4bd5backed Yes | 40c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 128 | 8.6%11 W · 117 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7297…4fa8backed No | 75c | 31.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacea…3425backed No | 60c | 31.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed Yes | 48c | 30.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68eb…5b93backed Yes | 45c | 29.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea1…4b4dbacked No | 71c | 22.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2f…304ebacked No | 70c | 14.35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $2,500 April 20-26?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 April 20-26?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 April 20-26?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 April 20-26?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 April 20-26?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 April 20-26?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,400 April 20-26?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,600 April 20-26?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,700 April 20-26?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,800 April 20-26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.