Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 April 20-26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8dd026a17e6d5ac946310d953a5c0f56dcca99afc559b45136822c4793cfb202
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,826
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,612
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,826 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 11c | 16,246$1,732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,732 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f55…e9a4backed Yes | 2c | 7,451$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.34 | 142 | 13.4%19 W · 123 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad2e…d9bdbacked Yes | 2c | 3,715$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdde9…4bd5backed Yes | 20c | 3,245$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.73 | 128 | 8.6%11 W · 117 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df2…01afbacked Yes | 4c | 2,500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 84 | 11.9%10 W · 74 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 4cpaid | +599.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc250…8d6ebacked No | 80c | 2,339$1,868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.27 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 73cpaid | -12%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf58c…d588backed Yes | 3c | 1,476$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.01 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 1c | 1,275$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 197 | 0%0 W · 197 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf6…5219backed Yes | 13c | 831.45$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.34 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21c6…927bbacked Yes | 3c | 423.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 167 | 2.4%4 W · 163 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…a096backed No | 76c | 300$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 67cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8582…0595backed Yes | 6c | 234.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97c5…8492backed No | 77c | 113.11$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.05 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x710a…898dbacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 74cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87fe…875bbacked No | 80c | 83.32$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb693…6ebcbacked Yes | 20c | 81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b95…9b87backed Yes | 29c | 52.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x187f…a85bbacked No | 79c | 44.76$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x030d…7ce5backed No | 74c | 24.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e09…d8aebacked No | 79c | 22.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac11…bdd1backed No | 80c | 17.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2e…027cbacked No | 77c | 16.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadbf…d83ebacked No | 80c | 15.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 April 20-26?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 April 20-26?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 April 20-26?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 April 20-26?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 April 20-26?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,400 April 20-26?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,500 April 20-26?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,600 April 20-26?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,700 April 20-26?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,800 April 20-26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.