Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 April 20-26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x169aa02e149d5b9ce91bf2cce984bfb5e414e2bb8ed1405481e0e30de16f9ce3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $145,491
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $102,386
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $145,491 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 13c | 29,080$3,687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,686.77 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 17c | 17,947$3,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,082.81 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 0c | 11,369$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f73…acefbacked Yes | 29c | 8,080$2,343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,343.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33d9…c9f6backed Yes | 30c | 5,472$1,622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,622.22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 24c | 4,931$1,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,194.52 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad45…b8c9backed Yes | 3c | 4,065$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.35 | 93 | 7.5%7 W · 86 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090c…4deebacked Yes | 1c | 4,027$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.17 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…4524backed No | 71c | 1,920$1,361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.53 | 162 | 53.7%87 W · 75 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d30…b2b3backed Yes | 3c | 1,075$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc8…7a07backed Yes | 17c | 1,051$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.46 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -81%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43a6…8b32backed No | 77c | 1,000$773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227 | 54 | 70.4%38 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf58c…d588backed Yes | 20c | 815.34$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.29 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dba…0c23backed No | 45c | 799.82$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.26 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…6feabacked No | 80c | 700$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c6…927bbacked Yes | 3c | 594.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 167 | 2.4%4 W · 163 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f55…e9a4backed Yes | 16c | 561.34$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.85 | 142 | 13.4%19 W · 123 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc93e…7195backed Yes | 16c | 549.4$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c6b4backed Yes | 19c | 481.89$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.84 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f69…acb6backed Yes | 2c | 447.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 179 | 2.2%4 W · 175 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd1…8af7backed Yes | 25c | 353.23$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.31 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -90.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90f…b6dabacked Yes | 27c | 321.35$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.76 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa813…04fbbacked No | 79c | 277.28$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.23 | 99 | 64.6%64 W · 35 L | +17.0wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf7…9351backed Yes | 27c | 255.05$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39e4…b188backed Yes | 12c | 181.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f32…1532backed Yes | 55c | 170.04$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.52 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe36a…ae58backed Yes | 24c | 165.55$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.43 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…2fd6backed Yes | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1556…02f1backed Yes | 19c | 118.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf295…881ebacked No | 46c | 92.22$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb28a…834bbacked Yes | 22c | 74.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa40f…70dcbacked Yes | 29c | 73.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58de…02c3backed Yes | 22c | 60.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0e…1d8bbacked Yes | 23c | 55.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc31e…a0dcbacked Yes | 23c | 53.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93eb…e99ebacked No | 77c | 43.95$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 54c | 37.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -8.0wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb693…6ebcbacked Yes | 47c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed No | 55c | 34.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9996…bda1backed No | 71c | 26.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…1c4cbacked No | 74c | 26.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 76cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf998…7409backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3657…f3d7backed No | 64c | 22.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad3…60c2backed No | 79c | 19.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…69e5backed No | 77c | 18.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 April 20-26?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 April 20-26?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 April 20-26?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 April 20-26?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 April 20-26?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,400 April 20-26?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,500 April 20-26?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,600 April 20-26?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,700 April 20-26?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,800 April 20-26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.