Commodities · resolved market
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57bcd661a0d08c4b28c81dd9def900a9dbd9c0e0808812f06ca406121e495612
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $133,838
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $133,838 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf440…f311backed No | 0c | 74,058$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03c1…e7dcbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6472…81e3backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf578…2450backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…0c40backed No | 1c | 1,167$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 66c | 925.29$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.78 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa446…754ebacked No | 20c | 842.64$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.53 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 24c | 522.71$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.37 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9301…3b67backed No | 43c | 494.71$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.27 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdac5…ae24backed No | 34c | 312.02$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.13 | 198 | 55.6%110 W · 88 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 18c | 250$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | +13.7wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b5c…c056backed No | 30c | 241.58$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.7 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +7.5wins | +0.19per pick | 32cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x34a1…0847backed No | 14c | 236.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 13c | 235.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 264 | 13.3%35 W · 229 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 6c | 204.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 165 | 16.4%27 W · 138 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56f6…4568backed Yes | 72c | 183.39$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.07 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a86…f8e8backed No | 17c | 177.86$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -54%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2c…eb18backed No | 35c | 169.26$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 16c | 158.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 14c | 148.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3605…b531backed No | 42c | 120.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88f5…828abacked Yes | 59c | 120$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +4.4wins | +0.34per pick | 59cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x75ea…1616backed No | 38c | 117.03$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.47 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ce…7f30backed No | 9c | 114$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x336f…c31ebacked Yes | 69c | 113.01$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.72 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…cd01backed No | 30c | 110$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6033…54fbbacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…4021backed Yes | 65c | 90$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 297 | 47.5%141 W · 156 L | +34.9wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1d56…0bcbbacked No | 25c | 80.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae13…8dcabacked Yes | 68c | 73.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 20c | 72.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 186 | 37.6%70 W · 116 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No | 19c | 71.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 96 | 16.7%16 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5645…5d21backed Yes | 78c | 63.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 70c | 62$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 68 | 72.1%49 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 37c | 54.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f79…e33ebacked No | 21c | 48.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +53%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed No | 24c | 45.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c4…0216backed Yes | 61c | 41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed Yes | 74c | 39.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc5…e175backed Yes | 77c | 37.47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.8wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b03…27ccbacked No | 35c | 33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 75c | 32.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked Yes | 73c | 17.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 49 | 73.5%36 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed Yes | 72c | 15.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeefa…c780backed Yes | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March?this page
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $125 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $25 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $40 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $50 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.