Commodities · resolved market
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf22c4df836e95254cb1a1857557059de3d7f88b0da2cdd4f0abdabbcfd8a93ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,089
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,164
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,089 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xda71…9351backed Yes | 10c | 6,983$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.62 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -77%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69c3…8a32backed Yes | 12c | 4,327$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 3,729$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 2,975$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.12 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x021b…2103backed Yes | 1c | 1,594$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90d1…f62abacked Yes | 7c | 1,110$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.7 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe1…e36bbacked Yes | 7c | 1,001$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed Yes | 7c | 644.49$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.45 | 188 | 4.3%8 W · 180 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad96…c44bbacked Yes | 32c | 626.2$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 165 | 16.4%27 W · 138 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84c7…cabebacked Yes | 10c | 453.96$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.3 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f36…2819backed Yes | 38c | 440.99$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf548…e374backed Yes | 8c | 354.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68c9…4c60backed No | 61c | 333.85$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.2 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 11c | 323.77$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 300$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 6c | 278.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 121 | 2.5%3 W · 118 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ded…3740backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 8c | 220.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f06…add9backed Yes | 9c | 220$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 5c | 208.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 91 | 2.2%2 W · 89 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4915…bef1backed Yes | 9c | 166.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c7…2c2ebacked Yes | 9c | 166.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe04b…3912backed Yes | 11c | 146.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 10c | 144.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 9c | 137.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x541d…8f88backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?this page
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $125 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $25 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $40 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $50 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.