Commodities · resolved market
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $50 by end of March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66fd504a1a43831bcca5e7d7f745c07cfe3c9ec6d36c53e41213a75ddb4b25a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $149,081
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $128,791
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $149,081 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8714…4faabacked Yes | 1c | 19,490$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.69 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +10.6wins | +0.29per pick | 15cpaid | +113.1%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…e2c0backed Yes | 3c | 9,608$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.09 | 59 | 15.3%9 W · 50 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fa…23e5backed Yes | 2c | 5,502$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd5…481fbacked Yes | 5c | 5,113$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 4,821$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.37 | 222 | 1.4%3 W · 219 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b2…3742backed Yes | 5c | 4,811$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7655…1fa8backed Yes | 2c | 4,620$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.72 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5543…8d64backed Yes | 6c | 3,000$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.39 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebe3…c1eebacked Yes | 0c | 2,933$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed Yes | 2c | 2,494$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.57 | 188 | 4.3%8 W · 180 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9167…5338backed Yes | 1c | 2,141$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,897$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 91 | 2.2%2 W · 89 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b9…1cb5backed Yes | 6c | 1,805$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x842b…b366backed Yes | 1c | 1,781$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 79 | 30.4%24 W · 55 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e56…33b3backed Yes | 1c | 1,681$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea0…6be0backed Yes | 2c | 1,610$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd1…7bdcbacked Yes | 2c | 1,568$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf21a…3ec3backed Yes | 2c | 1,401$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 2c | 1,380$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 90 | 8.9%8 W · 82 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,321$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.18 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b03…a61dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,300$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.9 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7640…b42cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,260$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 2c | 1,209$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 121 | 2.5%3 W · 118 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ef…df7dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,164$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xace3…ff06backed Yes | 2c | 1,102$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 1,099$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 1,019$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 130 | 6.2%8 W · 122 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 4c | 1,015$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 2c | 800$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06e…c12cbacked Yes | 5c | 778.81$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.94 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 629.51$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.47 | 1,032 | 9.3%96 W · 936 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 3c | 590.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 264 | 13.3%35 W · 229 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 2c | 498.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 69 | 2.9%2 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x143b…c5fcbacked Yes | 7c | 210.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -74%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb20…3478backed Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $50 by end of March?this page
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $125 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $25 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $40 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.