Commodities · resolved market
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9517c7d442962ca779f8c84e0f6d4fa0a98342945790f4ac540bc7a693cbd03
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,949
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,034
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,949 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8ac9…92d3backed Yes | 6c | 5,171$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcdd…73a5backed Yes | 12c | 2,853$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 14c | 1,844$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.53 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 1,679$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.53 | 165 | 16.4%27 W · 138 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8a…6312backed No | 75c | 1,436$1,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 57c | 1,368$776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.64 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 6c | 1,300$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…c633backed Yes | 2c | 1,253$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 75 | 2.7%2 W · 73 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9122…30ebbacked Yes | 7c | 1,141$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed Yes | 3c | 1,066$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.21 | 188 | 4.3%8 W · 180 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb5…6be6backed Yes | 43c | 1,000$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.81 | 58 | 10.3%6 W · 52 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x298b…066fbacked Yes | 12c | 961.33$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.45 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b9…6b7cbacked Yes | 5c | 842.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1217…7cf5backed No | 48c | 614.98$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.99 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 7c | 590.19$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.39 | 264 | 13.3%35 W · 229 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 16c | 569.28$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.69 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe1…e36bbacked Yes | 42c | 565.08$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…4021backed Yes | 30c | 544.08$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.71 | 297 | 47.5%141 W · 156 L | +34.9wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0f06…add9backed Yes | 54c | 542.26$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.71 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 500.21$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.59 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 3c | 477.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa596…8d92backed Yes | 66c | 465.06$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.3 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe626…6771backed No | 43c | 402.78$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.78 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf2…403bbacked No | 43c | 345$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd00e…fb86backed Yes | 11c | 300.8$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75f4…6dedbacked Yes | 14c | 217.52$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd297…2919backed No | 61c | 207.95$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.26 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc2…3c7fbacked No | 61c | 200.94$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.64 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x634a…07b2backed Yes | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -4.8wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x62b5…21febacked Yes | 56c | 178.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eec…c999backed Yes | 8c | 178.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf98…d0bfbacked No | 80c | 172.29$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcda6…3f07backed Yes | 36c | 170$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c8…e7a8backed Yes | 61c | 163.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x336f…c31ebacked Yes | 55c | 157.12$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.42 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710c…5bdfbacked Yes | 21c | 145.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 29c | 142.07$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.87 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…0b42backed No | 45c | 139.14$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.14 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4970…ca78backed Yes | 46c | 135$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.1 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…567fbacked Yes | 46c | 130.58$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.52 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc40e…ebf5backed Yes | 60c | 119.77$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.86 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -7.6wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed Yes | 52c | 114.32$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed No | 53c | 110.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.17 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +6.8wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f34…7684backed Yes | 14c | 107.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x710f…09a6backed No | 61c | 106.56$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.15 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19a7…962ebacked No | 59c | 101.73$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.73 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.29per pick | 54cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x546e…2266backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -43%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40e0…69e3backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -4.7wins | -0.36per pick | 59cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1d56…0bcbbacked Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 60c | 83.83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…d8d6backed Yes | 26c | 75.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b5c…c056backed No | 53c | 74.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.03 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +7.5wins | +0.19per pick | 32cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x823e…fc4fbacked No | 71c | 70.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 58c | 69.83$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 68 | 72.1%49 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76e5…3ca5backed No | 74c | 67.32$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x882a…cde2backed No | 45c | 64$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e27…e360backed Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…30a1backed No | 42c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a69…3186backed Yes | 53c | 56.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa255…2ffcbacked No | 53c | 52.87$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.95 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb53…edd1backed Yes | 46c | 49.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 36cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 27c | 47.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 111 | 39.6%44 W · 67 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e67…beffbacked Yes | 43c | 42.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…5546backed Yes | 45c | 40.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbecd…3398backed Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1176…57e1backed Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5089…937dbacked Yes | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed No | 47c | 28.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4207…ebd1backed Yes | 60c | 25.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a3…203abacked Yes | 47c | 24.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b8…eb55backed Yes | 54c | 23.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa245…bf9ebacked No | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 60c | 20.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 49 | 73.5%36 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfed…12c3backed No | 73c | 20.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March?this page
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $125 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $25 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $40 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $50 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.