Commodities · resolved market
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1273a456e5c2d31f1ac244ee8b716c25ee098d13c794ba7304c8c23c9c289f93
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $108,249
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $108,249 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1615…8f2bbacked No | 0c | 29,994$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea38…af81backed No | 0c | 28,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 79c | 7,913$6,277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,635.58 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff30…4a37backed No | 7c | 7,305$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.58 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x272c…7f07backed No | 1c | 5,261$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.41 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +137.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab7e…b5d1backed Yes | 77c | 910.43$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.43 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb41…8536backed No | 59c | 847.51$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 24c | 674.2$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.04 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 8c | 560$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.57 | 165 | 16.4%27 W · 138 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a4…3ee9backed No | 77c | 450.28$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9301…3b67backed No | 51c | 450$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f4f…6232backed Yes | 63c | 428.05$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.33 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1217…7cf5backed Yes | 24c | 348.66$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.66 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce83…5b97backed No | 62c | 300$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf921…be16backed Yes | 26c | 268.2$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc7…116fbacked Yes | 37c | 240.08$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.86 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe222…b4cbbacked No | 14c | 220$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 13c | 151.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 212 | 28.8%61 W · 151 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48d9…e5d5backed No | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed No | 71c | 141.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebc5…e7f1backed No | 76c | 132.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52c6…e00abacked Yes | 14c | 111.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +622.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…4021backed No | 13c | 107.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 297 | 47.5%141 W · 156 L | +34.9wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed No | 11c | 107.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc752…62e1backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf728…1e11backed No | 25c | 88.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…b37cbacked No | 61c | 78.4$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.06 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9122…30ebbacked No | 27c | 74.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa446…754ebacked No | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfad…1423backed Yes | 63c | 66.62$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed Yes | 22c | 65.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.63 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 27c | 64.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 1,032 | 9.3%96 W · 936 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 28c | 64.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 40c | 63.3$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 345 | 34.5%119 W · 226 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x823e…fc4fbacked No | 80c | 62.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed No | 33c | 59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 1,286 | 24.2%311 W · 975 L | -58.4wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 32c | 56.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.93 | 96 | 16.7%16 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 21c | 54.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed Yes | 62c | 54.58$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +7.6wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +161.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a3…203abacked Yes | 70c | 47.68$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 71c | 42.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 49 | 73.5%36 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f748backed Yes | 73c | 41.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa682…511abacked Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510b…fd51backed Yes | 38c | 39.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.29per pick | 41cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad42…c918backed Yes | 55c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e57…55b7backed Yes | 42c | 32.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 13cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b7…cdf3backed Yes | 59c | 30.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 38c | 29.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b03…27ccbacked No | 62c | 29.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 57c | 18.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +6.7wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9381…9ae2backed No | 70c | 17.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf196…ef6bbacked Yes | 66c | 17.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64ea…5575backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March?this page
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $125 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $25 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $40 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $50 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.