Commodities · resolved market
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa28ea8556dd4176a832719ce403d449727bb16f2ff8d90cb6cd7c4dd086ec06c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,778
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,140
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,778 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 3,764$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac9…92d3backed Yes | 2c | 1,741$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,250$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.39 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 2c | 874.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 58 | 10.3%6 W · 52 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 702.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 165 | 16.4%27 W · 138 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 2c | 699.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x298b…066fbacked Yes | 7c | 591$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 7c | 419.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 264 | 13.3%35 W · 229 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 50c | 321.78$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.89 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed Yes | 7c | 290.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 9c | 171.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 90 | 8.9%8 W · 82 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…d8d6backed Yes | 16c | 127.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca4…e4e7backed Yes | 49c | 122.37$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1217…7cf5backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b03…27ccbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebc5…e7f1backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1107…41d4backed Yes | 11c | 88.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa446…754ebacked Yes | 22c | 68.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f36…2819backed Yes | 50c | 64.23$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 78c | 46.71$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a20…f9c2backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 64c | 21.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 49 | 73.5%36 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70e9…a7d7backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?this page
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $125 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $25 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $40 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $50 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.