TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Netanyahu tweet again by Saturday?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$409,909

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $409,909 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x44c4…68c5backed Yes49c105,830$51,334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51,33410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x228b…88b9backed No51c105,769$54,465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51,304.39560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae7c…487ebacked Yes14c11,877$1,713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,713.3610528.6%30 W · 75 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9e8…c443backed No80c11,496$9,183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,313.72850%4 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-30.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x55d0…f655backed Yes7c3,542$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.7914036.4%51 W · 89 L+8.7wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-0.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes24c1,755$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.26230%0 W · 23 L-3.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes14c1,395$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.1617414.4%25 W · 149 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick15cpaid+17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd620…f3bbbacked Yes3c1,049$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6ea…b02abacked Yes4c1,013$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3710513.3%14 W · 91 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd67b…5780backed Yes61c1,004$613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$613.3938247.6%182 W · 200 L+37.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5715…1616backed No39c999.98$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$609.9911527%31 W · 84 L+7.6wins+0.07per pick20cpaid+14.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe937…d46abacked Yes14c969.99$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.77140.8%29 W · 42 L+7.8wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+112.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes13c793.25$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.0535652.8%188 W · 168 L+14.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc8e…944ebacked Yes38c666.18$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.825034%17 W · 33 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+92.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x66d6…50c7backed Yes29c653.49$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.954339.5%17 W · 26 L+4.5wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6240…3727backed Yes6c640$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.72512%3 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-59.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x401e…6fc9backed Yes15c594.61$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.7819648%94 W · 102 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x211e…35ddbacked No59c520.13$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.25728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick49cpaid-57.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x631c…450fbacked Yes4c500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203537.1%13 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2dc2…1e51backed Yes9c500$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.58400%0 W · 40 L-3.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x77e0…e3b4backed No54c483.6$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.6119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.14per pick23cpaid-83.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9480…a200backed No61c426.5$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.5333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-45.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes14c401.83$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.2711818.6%22 W · 96 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick13cpaid-30.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c85…31d4backed Yes26c383.68$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.9810226.5%27 W · 75 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick23cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes17c357.73$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.0116046.3%74 W · 86 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c28…bc1fbacked Yes28c351.02$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd379…6d43backed No58c345$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1453461.8%21 W · 13 L+5.7wins+0.17per pick45cpaid+34.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x152f…c7e7backed Yes33c301.05$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010313.6%14 W · 89 L+0.1wins0.00per pick14cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x018c…9794backed Yes35c288.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x676c…b4abbacked Yes28c275$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.34346.5%20 W · 23 L+4.9wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+19.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb1a1…d308backed No60c273.45$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.232391.3%21 W · 2 L+6.6wins+0.29per pick63cpaid+54.6%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x4a2f…2bc6backed Yes8c261.87$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206631.8%21 W · 45 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d58…cfccbacked Yes23c249.98$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5715338.6%59 W · 94 L-0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d45…97f4backed Yes30c248.55$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.571758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+8.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7fc0…8e67backed Yes45c219.98$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.991266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+28.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbf69…4fa2backed Yes17c219.97$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9950%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf40…e942backed Yes29c210$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.81637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-42.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd68d…637dbacked Yes34c207.74$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7130%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed Yes15c200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2632345.2%146 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-18%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa729…24cabacked No73c200$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54875%6 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+17.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x498c…c8b4backed Yes8c199.2$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff00…c146backed No75c196.82$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.62742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1b2…3f91backed Yes8c194.63$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f5e…ddaabacked Yes42c194.17$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.557632.9%25 W · 51 L+0.2wins0.00per pick33cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e2c…621ebacked Yes38c190.76$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.262642.3%11 W · 15 L-5.0wins-0.19per pick61cpaid-42.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x705b…02ebbacked No57c176.87$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.88540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid-26.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x893d…da13backed Yes11c174.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+54.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x345d…4e41backed Yes12c166.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.985052%26 W · 24 L+6.2wins+0.12per pick40cpaid+29.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa0c3…68d9backed Yes29c165$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.851145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick38cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3df5…cbb8backed Yes49c163.57$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.24560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6579…b817backed No50c159.24$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.24166.3%1 W · 15 L-2.7wins-0.17per pick23cpaid-87.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9b3a…834cbacked No77c141.73$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick75cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90f8…8033backed No71c140$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.6683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick67cpaid+19.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb40…8608backed No72c139.26$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd153…f9a3backed Yes16c138.98$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.99425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-31.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d4b…21c7backed No58c136.78$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.782650%13 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-18.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5eda…d453backed Yes38c135.99$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.72462.5%15 W · 9 L+4.0wins+0.17per pick46cpaid+54.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x42f0…fc65backed Yes19c134.72$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.63020%6 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-21.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f87…3a3cbacked No76c130.84$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+30.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaec0…5a19backed Yes8c126.53$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.126516.9%11 W · 54 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-34.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes12c117.24$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked No61c116.45$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.78616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick38cpaid-72.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc255…68f8backed No67c112.75$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.75250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-24.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe102…c4d8backed Yes31c111.06$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07a2…510bbacked Yes54c110.26$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.0220%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes39c110$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.956336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x29ba…5a07backed Yes24c104.66$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.612516%4 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-72.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0b0…a5fbbacked Yes60c100.81$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6016648.2%80 W · 86 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd32d…1745backed No75c100.35$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.35540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-46.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e4c…0314backed No79c100$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.28per pick62cpaid-57.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0888…72acbacked Yes42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421040%4 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-8.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbcc2…8c9abacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.181844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-33.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac0d…8bb7backed No77c100$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.51425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-67.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa270…ecadbacked No67c99.99$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.52733.3%9 W · 18 L+3.4wins+0.13per pick21cpaid-1.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4f31…f9d3backed No58c99.93$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f15…9151backed No56c97.16$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.96580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+24.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes27c95.94$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.239621%83 W · 313 L-57.0wins-0.14per pick35cpaid-64.1%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xac8f…feddbacked No49c95.01$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.0121034.3%72 W · 138 L+9.3wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+42.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xacb1…db9bbacked Yes54c92.59$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7ba…ae9cbacked Yes22c91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.76333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-11%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc687…ea1bbacked Yes55c90.87$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8a1b…67b1backed No59c84.75$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.75250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5841…cd1dbacked Yes45c82.42$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.093234.4%11 W · 21 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+66.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b7…9f11backed Yes53c70.62$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.43944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-30.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3f8…7158backed Yes55c70.44$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.74540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+25.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5120…fb24backed No63c70$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.21540%6 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-26.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x870a…bd43backed No46c69.99$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.58530.6%26 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd888…0471backed Yes30c68.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54ae…e8ccbacked No75c67.07$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.073100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e07…c5cdbacked No47c64.42$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.42425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-46.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba44…269abacked No59c63.28$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.052100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+65.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37e9…ab9fbacked No49c62.48$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.716056.7%34 W · 26 L+9.0wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+31.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xab43…f049backed No59c61.33$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+70.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a51…beeabacked Yes41c60.74$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x81e2…e6a9backed No55c54.55$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24f6…7ce9backed Yes31c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick41cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x927f…b921backed No58c46.28$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.443531.4%11 W · 24 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-38.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9392…c94dbacked No54c44.38$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.421457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+48.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ccf…bdadbacked No69c43.5$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+12.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fc3…e9a2backed No70c43.03$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.03683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick58cpaid+49.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.