TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on March 11?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$30,118

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,118 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb720…8d6cbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes32c1,160$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.491,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51bb…a919backed No69c429.15$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.155356.6%30 W · 23 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes9c399.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf47c…e36bbacked Yes13c343.83$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.8340%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf516…1ea1backed Yes48c338.83$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.245135.3%18 W · 33 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-21.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No66c336.15$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.7391967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked No61c225.05$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.581,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No64c216.52$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.4812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa37d…b2b4backed No49c211.97$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.232157.3%184 W · 137 L+17.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes32c201.23$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.283,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2db…2263backed Yes35c200.66$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.1711126.1%29 W · 82 L-9.0wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-33.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xfc33…9636backed No62c200$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7612540%50 W · 75 L-0.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes40c199.58$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.681,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x83fe…23d9backed No71c176$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.7832760.6%198 W · 129 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes32c171.87$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.6933535.2%118 W · 217 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes29c160.17$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.1517,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe34…8ee7backed No70c141.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.0816355.2%90 W · 73 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes37c132.97$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.931,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc9ca…ad5dbacked Yes55c131.59$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$722540%10 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes18c123.21$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.17,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes26c122.73$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6881234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes33c120$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.194,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a42…8da8backed Yes34c118.74$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7838840.7%158 W · 230 L-14.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc9b7…ac89backed No35c106.31$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.2811044.5%49 W · 61 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes51c101.99$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.146,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159520%19 W · 76 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-28.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed No70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac0d…8bb7backed Yes70c100$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-29%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes30c99.97$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9921641.7%90 W · 126 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes13c99.27$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8984124%202 W · 639 L-35.9wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-42.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No65c96.5$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.063,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No69c94.8$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.488,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a49…8d1fbacked No38c93.52$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.828248.8%40 W · 42 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-15.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes34c93.33$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3212230.3%37 W · 85 L-11.5wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-22.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf21b…5121backed No72c89$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.922958.6%17 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick67cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d5c…cdf7backed No54c86.09$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.672045%9 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa717…faeabacked No51c81.96$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.8531170.7%220 W · 91 L+42.3wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+30.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x0514…4fefbacked Yes31c80$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.619531.3%61 W · 134 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bbf…9047backed Yes14c77.49$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5219.5%2 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb537…14ccbacked No66c75.76$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.7641460.1%249 W · 165 L-21.5wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes26c75.25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8925029.2%73 W · 177 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x720a…0a49backed No73c67.2$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.0211878.8%93 W · 25 L+9.3wins+0.08per pick71cpaid+11.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes33c66.76$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.13,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbecc…f560backed Yes32c65$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.955129.4%15 W · 36 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e7f…44d4backed No67c64.96$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.4424966.7%166 W · 83 L+15.3wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xeba1…44dfbacked Yes67c64.93$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.42528%7 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-0.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1a06…15a9backed Yes31c62.09$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2556721.3%121 W · 446 L-25.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes32c60$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.281029.1%236 W · 574 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x858b…a2cebacked Yes43c59.83$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4817144.4%76 W · 95 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc550…dbe8backed Yes68c58.91$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404353.5%23 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes28c55.55$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6711436%41 W · 73 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe649…4e37backed No68c53.7$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.3713523%31 W · 104 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf2e…c770backed Yes34c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1739541.3%163 W · 232 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39c0…ae83backed Yes33c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3712223%28 W · 94 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c49.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.992,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes34c45.22$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xcf01…79b6backed Yes32c45$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.288665.1%56 W · 30 L+6.7wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa42b…92e0backed No68c43.16$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.816349.2%31 W · 32 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8ab…823bbacked No51c42.7$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.94650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e76…65bdbacked No68c42.62$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.783141.9%13 W · 18 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x41fa…7cc4backed Yes35c42.49$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9579255.2%437 W · 355 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No71c42.29$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.3370770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5504…665dbacked No65c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1410055%55 W · 45 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-4.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd979…4a18backed Yes33c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132369.6%16 W · 7 L+4.7wins+0.20per pick49cpaid+33.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked No31c40$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.61,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x540f…4bf4backed No70c35.71$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.716467.2%43 W · 21 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes54c35.38$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9999961.8%617 W · 382 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfba8…8d3cbacked No66c35.09$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.939055.6%50 W · 40 L-7.7wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-16%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9b1e…cc93backed No55c35$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.9113058.5%76 W · 54 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+39.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x131d…2a50backed No67c34.19$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2810335.9%37 W · 66 L-15.3wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-38.2%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x59b4…78c9backed No68c33.18$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.686755.2%37 W · 30 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed No66c33$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.241,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b81…b68bbacked No68c32.99$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.74652.2%24 W · 22 L-4.7wins-0.10per pick62cpaid-24.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked No35c31.99$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.762,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd05…0e6ebacked No61c31.61$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.237767.5%52 W · 25 L+5.5wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No80c31.25$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.251,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x26d6…7762backed No74c31.24$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.122100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4b9…b47fbacked No68c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.518048.8%39 W · 41 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd721…57a7backed Yes63c30$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.945127.1%122 W · 329 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xad62…2aa9backed Yes40c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1216532.7%54 W · 111 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe233…c70bbacked No73c29.99$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.154966.7%366 W · 183 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x222e…a983backed No69c28.24$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6228…7a9dbacked Yes36c27.78$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-76.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf77b…42e9backed Yes70c25$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.53076.7%23 W · 7 L+5.8wins+0.19per pick57cpaid+45.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed No72c24$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.7231868.6%218 W · 100 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdef0…9c46backed Yes72c23.51$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178038.8%31 W · 49 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0574…e49fbacked Yes67c22.26$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156729.9%20 W · 47 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-13.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No63c21.36$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.93,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59d4…b745backed No69c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.327540%110 W · 165 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c69…4622backed No64c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.256265.5%368 W · 194 L+35.2wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9b25…51eebacked Yes64c18.75$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126753.7%36 W · 31 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f2a…23eebacked No69c17.87$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.472100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc65a…a48ebacked No67c17.78$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.957764.9%50 W · 27 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick69cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ec4…6f33backed Yes65c16.55$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.734139%16 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e3…5062backed No66c15.27$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.191947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+35.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc323…4408backed No70c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.533567.5%226 W · 109 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa685…c2b3backed No68c14.71$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.713953.8%21 W · 18 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-24.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.