Champions League · resolved market
Will Juventus win Group G at the FIFA Club World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1109cffdb929ac94c22e21adc65b1a0838638fb47a5ad85c27a8f2739ca1bf8a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,072
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,605
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,072 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,145$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.07 | 187 | 7%13 W · 174 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Yes | 45c | 735$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.75 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 56c | 549.44$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.41 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7256…30c9backed No | 55c | 440.76$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.76 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Yes | 44c | 434.04$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.52 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked Yes | 38c | 355.44$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.68 | 123 | 54.5%67 W · 56 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 37c | 334.84$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.05 | 115 | 48.7%56 W · 59 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 31c | 324.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 82 | 24.4%20 W · 62 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b5…e43fbacked Yes | 32c | 315.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 68c | 297.81$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.35 | 306 | 57.5%176 W · 130 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 43c | 267.62$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.94 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes | 25c | 222.95$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.58 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf750…4abbbacked Yes | 29c | 220.88$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.06 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 27c | 186$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.22 | 225 | 47.6%107 W · 118 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 35c | 168$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.54 | 389 | 35.2%137 W · 252 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b60…76d5backed Yes | 38c | 160$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.55 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Yes | 45c | 151.82$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.32 | 189 | 50.3%95 W · 94 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…36bebacked No | 74c | 144.47$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 35c | 133$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.95 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Yes | 45c | 115.13$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.81 | 110 | 70%77 W · 33 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5270…4c8bbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 70c | 80.13$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.11 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4116…330abacked Yes | 30c | 66.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…f74ebacked No | 77c | 65.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019a…7df0backed Yes | 31c | 65.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 114 | 29.8%34 W · 80 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x175b…b14cbacked Yes | 26c | 62.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed No | 53c | 61.22$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 202 | 41.6%84 W · 118 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0934…f376backed Yes | 27c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…dc09backed Yes | 44c | 51.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5598…0f47backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked No | 69c | 44.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3095…8e0ebacked Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Juventus win Group G at the FIFA Club World Cup?this page
- Will Manchester City win Group G at the FIFA Club World Cup?Yes won
- Will Wydad AC win Group G at the FIFA Club World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.