TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Premier League · resolved market

Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-04?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$694,442
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$727,759

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $694,442 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 778 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x16b2…a881backed Yes37c153,306$56,723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56,723.3121853.2%116 W · 102 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No66c129,493$85,883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43,609.896,04745.9%2,776 W · 3,271 L-21.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed No63c75,921$47,821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,100.0624846.8%116 W · 132 L+0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37e0…024ebacked No63c65,750$41,422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,327.4718950.3%95 W · 94 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe74a…40eebacked Yes28c37,207$10,488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,488.131861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+19%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Yes37c33,688$12,313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,312.891,21241.7%505 W · 707 L-1.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5350…2fdabacked Yes36c22,931$8,255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,255.313336.4%12 W · 21 L-5.2wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-31.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbec7…4f48backed Yes36c21,945$7,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,9005628.6%16 W · 40 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked No64c20,000$12,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,299.9425752.1%134 W · 123 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes37c18,755$6,973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,972.521,14642.8%490 W · 656 L-8.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed No63c15,263$9,653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,609.731,17950%590 W · 589 L+7.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48fe…b2b6backed Yes36c15,000$5,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,4009845.9%45 W · 53 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a65…15b1backed No62c12,859$7,973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,886.462774.1%20 W · 7 L+4.7wins+0.17per pick57cpaid+38.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No62c12,355$7,691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,664.472,21249.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L-9.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41bc…c75bbacked Yes37c11,232$4,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,201.081540%6 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked No64c9,540$6,122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,417.841,27250.4%641 W · 631 L-53.9wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6394…9bb3backed No63c8,089$5,103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,986.515271.2%37 W · 15 L+9.2wins+0.18per pick54cpaid+33.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x9665…e721backed No63c7,806$4,918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,888.374643.5%20 W · 26 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x49fa…f904backed Yes37c7,482$2,747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,746.789246.7%43 W · 49 L+9.1wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+33.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No70c7,245$5,107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,138.444,69641.7%1,957 W · 2,739 L+21.8wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed No65c7,050$4,589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,461.182,66145.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L-11.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11e2…26ccbacked No63c7,000$4,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5906137.7%23 W · 38 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-15.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9602…4d02backed No64c6,543$4,187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,356.8156453.9%304 W · 260 L+27.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xccea…a8ebbacked Yes36c6,488$2,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,339.732147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x274f…fbf4backed No71c6,049$4,309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,740.044259.5%25 W · 17 L-3.9wins-0.09per pick69cpaid-14.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb875…68a8backed No62c5,566$3,434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,132.4911162.2%69 W · 42 L+10.1wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+19.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed No64c5,435$3,469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,965.351,28348%616 W · 667 L-5.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf142…57e7backed No63c4,973$3,156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,817.2446551.8%241 W · 224 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed No63c4,521$2,849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,672.1439156%219 W · 172 L+12.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4446…1fd0backed No67c4,480$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,479.6410768.2%73 W · 34 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed No76c4,287$3,249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,037.8312642.9%54 W · 72 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xef45…1905backed Yes39c4,065$1,596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,596.15837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24d8…e8a8backed No64c4,039$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,439.58853.4%47 W · 41 L-0.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5543…e1f5backed No64c4,000$2,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,439.997754.5%42 W · 35 L+6.9wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+18.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfe0a…4a63backed Yes36c3,995$1,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,455.381921.1%4 W · 15 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick34cpaid-34.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x22d0…6293backed Yes35c3,700$1,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,309.67333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-42.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x014c…f5b6backed Yes32c3,438$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1005745.6%26 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcbc…71c1backed No64c3,360$2,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,209.61163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Yes36c3,333$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2006240.3%25 W · 37 L-5.1wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-17.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3d7d…ec26backed Yes37c3,200$1,184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1844447.7%21 W · 23 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Yes36c3,064$1,102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,101.8611945.4%54 W · 65 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa07c…11a0backed Yes11c3,018$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3405536.4%20 W · 35 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed No64c2,538$1,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$918.1214147.5%67 W · 74 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-11.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd05f…8777backed No63c2,471$1,552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$919.0815748.4%76 W · 81 L+13.8wins+0.09per pick40cpaid+24%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x06a8…2927backed Yes35c2,369$829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$829.131323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.16per pick39cpaid-39.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xedb1…819ebacked No64c2,322$1,486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$835.883348.5%16 W · 17 L-4.5wins-0.14per pick62cpaid-22.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed No65c2,232$1,451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$781.213829%40 W · 98 L-13.5wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-29.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd347…39bdbacked Yes23c2,200$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5062544%11 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-17.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Yes36c2,103$753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753.420140.8%82 W · 119 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a22…c3b5backed Yes36c2,076$748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7485127.5%14 W · 37 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2c8…5471backed No63c2,046$1,289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$757.1614450.7%73 W · 71 L+9.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed No63c2,000$1,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7409843.9%43 W · 55 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ee4…276fbacked Yes33c2,000$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6603063.3%19 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick63cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22f6…6a9bbacked Yes1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.9wins-0.21per pick49cpaid-59.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x993f…3ee3backed Yes37c2,000$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7406048.3%29 W · 31 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24da…9561backed No62c2,000$1,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$759.994953.1%26 W · 23 L+5.9wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+23.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1244…c851backed No63c2,000$1,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$739.9733057%188 W · 142 L+17.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb888…ccfdbacked Yes36c1,999$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.828043.8%35 W · 45 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0b…f4f4backed Yes33c1,776$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594.61631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-38.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe18a…fd87backed No63c1,752$1,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$648.3853134.5%183 W · 348 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e33…afb3backed Yes29c1,724$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50012345.5%56 W · 67 L-10.3wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-17.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd708…b9d2backed Yes37c1,715$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6403956.4%22 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+18.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc67b…c149backed Yes38c1,693$644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643.521942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6718…1ef9backed Yes36c1,667$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe02c…5d08backed No62c1,642$1,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$623.982927.6%8 W · 21 L-5.5wins-0.19per pick47cpaid-50.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a70cbacked Yes37c1,622$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6009537.9%36 W · 59 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick39cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ad4…f293backed Yes37c1,622$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-30.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No62c1,613$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.949254.9%270 W · 222 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe8e…27ffbacked Yes37c1,609$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.084637%17 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c4…9133backed Yes39c1,603$621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621.051030%3 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x377c…91aebacked No64c1,600$1,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57616737.7%63 W · 104 L+10.6wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+8.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3414…067abacked No62c1,600$986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6144748.9%23 W · 24 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked No64c1,600$1,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$583.9836956.9%210 W · 159 L+20.6wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+12.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdea1…5a65backed Yes37c1,589$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$588450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd28e…43cdbacked Yes35c1,579$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548.311338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick44cpaid+113.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fbb…53c4backed Yes39c1,537$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6003847.4%18 W · 20 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed No68c1,516$1,033 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482.71,16157.4%666 W · 495 L+40.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6138…97a0backed Yes36c1,500$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5405339.6%21 W · 32 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-20.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd410…3a1bbacked No63c1,499$938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$561.1431053.2%165 W · 145 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc923…5a59backed Yes35c1,477$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.93955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes34c1,438$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.917833.7%60 W · 118 L+8.2wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x699f…d5c6backed Yes36c1,420$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.9720246.5%94 W · 108 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1461…30a1backed Yes37c1,404$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.825034%17 W · 33 L-6.7wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-30.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1649…7d8abacked Yes36c1,389$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5005042%21 W · 29 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4417…01eebacked Yes18c1,355$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.0811142.3%47 W · 64 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc9f…905bbacked Yes38c1,337$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.1525648%123 W · 133 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x62b7…d224backed Yes35c1,328$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.0920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c46…be29backed Yes35c1,290$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45032736.4%119 W · 208 L-21.2wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-19.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1947…94bcbacked No65c1,278$824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.6329458.2%171 W · 123 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbbdc…9da2backed Yes36c1,243$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.753948.7%19 W · 20 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbffc…1f45backed No64c1,243$795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.465052%26 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid0%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed No65c1,200$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42040953.3%218 W · 191 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfcca…c460backed No63c1,194$757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43714254.2%77 W · 65 L+12.1wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+21.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed Yes38c1,134$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4319749.5%48 W · 49 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd502…4d4cbacked No64c1,099$703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.628670.9%61 W · 25 L+7.8wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+19.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb96c…6cc6backed No64c1,085$694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.610159.4%60 W · 41 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74fb…96cfbacked Yes38c1,053$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4002240.9%9 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcee6…b3b7backed Yes27c1,037$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2805042%21 W · 29 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+4.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb30…302abacked Yes29c1,032$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001827.8%5 W · 13 L-4.2wins-0.23per pick51cpaid-49.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x70b6…f2f2backed No64c1,023$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.072462.5%15 W · 9 L+3.6wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+47.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.