Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel declare war on Iran by Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29c48e46061e57cc6608419cfed3aaab88f53c7a92f045894fca2f7ecdd3cd8b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $494,636
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $403,771
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $494,636 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 228 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb9b…1d68backed Yes | 11c | 35,223$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bee…946cbacked Yes | 3c | 26,669$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 5c | 12,289$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.83 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -84%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe47c…3afabacked Yes | 8c | 12,265$969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$969.31 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3c…dd96backed Yes | 3c | 11,205$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf123…686fbacked Yes | 8c | 10,772$863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$863.16 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2893…1534backed Yes | 15c | 10,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x456b…eb7ebacked Yes | 26c | 9,218$2,394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,394.23 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 78c | 7,772$6,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,745.68 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf43a…cafcbacked Yes | 0c | 6,631$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 15cpaid | +46%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9095…0b3cbacked Yes | 13c | 6,467$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$854.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b0…071cbacked Yes | 3c | 6,141$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.67 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cac…0a0fbacked Yes | 3c | 5,900$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +5.5wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 4c | 5,867$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.18 | 123 | 5.7%7 W · 116 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28da…b97dbacked Yes | 4c | 5,750$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.64 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -5.1wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba32…deaabacked Yes | 5c | 5,501$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.43 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd74…6425backed Yes | 7c | 5,475$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa26a…6d6ebacked Yes | 16c | 5,252$830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$830.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e71…bfa5backed Yes | 10c | 5,018$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49d3…ea4ebacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.87 | 60 | 0%0 W · 60 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed Yes | 1c | 4,531$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.96 | 206 | 17%35 W · 171 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 74c | 4,529$3,346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,182.55 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4760…0a49backed No | 78c | 3,976$3,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$868.51 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +6.1wins | +0.29per pick | 52cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 3,958$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.83 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1287…e491backed Yes | 13c | 3,808$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ad…8f9cbacked Yes | 28c | 3,602$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +121.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed No | 72c | 3,500$2,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$979.99 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63c3…2783backed Yes | 4c | 3,199$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…edb0backed Yes | 13c | 2,732$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.54 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 19c | 2,721$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.1 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdaa…416dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,609$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 4c | 2,600$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.2 | 58 | 1.7%1 W · 57 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -93.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d36…8f64backed Yes | 16c | 2,354$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc737…d34cbacked Yes | 5c | 2,349$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -48%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc42…8e99backed Yes | 6c | 2,310$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 5c | 2,180$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.64 | 97 | 11.3%11 W · 86 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbbb…69bcbacked Yes | 1c | 2,153$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x833e…08b4backed Yes | 7c | 2,074$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e02…b56dbacked Yes | 31c | 2,069$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.7 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 19c | 2,065$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.34 | 115 | 37.4%43 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d6…64b8backed Yes | 16c | 2,064$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.61 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac1f…68f1backed Yes | 5c | 2,006$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe710…7526backed Yes | 1c | 1,787$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6e…b45bbacked Yes | 25c | 1,782$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.34 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4534…f867backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3d…615ebacked Yes | 19c | 1,496$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.27 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +4.5wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xae2d…8f7bbacked Yes | 9c | 1,480$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked No | 74c | 1,445$1,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.7 | 156 | 26.9%42 W · 114 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 3c | 1,426$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.73 | 86 | 17.4%15 W · 71 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…a71dbacked Yes | 29c | 1,402$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +5.0wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 20c | 1,361$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.7 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x019a…7df0backed Yes | 15c | 1,334$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -55%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x543e…8253backed Yes | 4c | 1,303$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -85%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf206…8cf6backed Yes | 9c | 1,290$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.34 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 19c | 1,258$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.41 | 169 | 61.5%104 W · 65 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 6c | 1,250$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.88 | 123 | 33.3%41 W · 82 L | +13.6wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9738backed Yes | 3c | 1,239$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +6.1wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x82c6…f1f9backed Yes | 4c | 1,224$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb12a…95a5backed Yes | 14c | 1,221$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.84 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8704…4b8dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,191$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf459…a5c8backed Yes | 17c | 1,176$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.21per pick | 23cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd393…4d6cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,141$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x675c…2224backed Yes | 4c | 1,124$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb92e…2558backed Yes | 9c | 1,121$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ac…1720backed Yes | 1c | 1,120$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…547bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,119$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa085…4c5fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,080$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b02…393ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,029$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 32cpaid | +47%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7102…28b4backed Yes | 1c | 1,005$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc3…648ebacked Yes | 23c | 1,000$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.1 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…e4bdbacked Yes | 26c | 1,000$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.32 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa2…6a1bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 41 | 14.6%6 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ba…0db1backed Yes | 13c | 999.99$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8967…1e9bbacked Yes | 15c | 999.99$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 992.26$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.48 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 6c | 988.9$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 66 | 3%2 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -95.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ea…6501backed Yes | 5c | 978.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb936…4769backed Yes | 4c | 977.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdae1…7a4dbacked Yes | 21c | 952.83$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…8e9abacked Yes | 18c | 950$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf1b…a550backed Yes | 4c | 915.01$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3852…c914backed Yes | 5c | 907.56$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 76c | 899.98$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…3ccbbacked Yes | 15c | 869.38$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.88 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 7c | 820.1$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.43 | 136 | 29.4%40 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9d…446dbacked Yes | 26c | 814.19$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.5 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +98.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…89c2backed Yes | 13c | 802.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.49 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0d…2a33backed Yes | 23c | 784$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.4 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd08e…2f7cbacked Yes | 26c | 770.31$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 179 | 29.1%52 W · 127 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x523b…ae86backed Yes | 3c | 766.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22c3…289cbacked Yes | 26c | 760.83$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…fee6backed Yes | 1c | 738.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 0%0 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43e4…fd34backed Yes | 5c | 736.91$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9df…d8bcbacked Yes | 7c | 714.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c53…44f2backed Yes | 18c | 705$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.45 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4d…1acebacked Yes | 15c | 687.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64cd…3518backed Yes | 15c | 677.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99eb…aa95backed Yes | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…72f8backed Yes | 17c | 666.06$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.23 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.