TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,703,460
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,479,758

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,703,460 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 201 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7f85…8693backed Yes0c2,259,915$4,670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,669.832623.1%6 W · 20 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick17cpaid-30.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4f2…7862backed Yes0c2,167,505$5,363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,362.840%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf32a…06fdbacked Yes0c2,146,227$4,292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,292.4550%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48e7…d5f8backed Yes0c723,456$1,129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,129.451910.5%2 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick7cpaid-66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb41a…3a25backed Yes0c691,375$2,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,390.0960%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2165…f598backed Yes0c350,000$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,050240%0 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bac…02b1backed Yes0c144,744$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$578.9890%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71de…5f97backed Yes1c106,442$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$638.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a81…58b0backed Yes0c101,000$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10260%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeab5…6d9fbacked Yes0c83,960$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fef…839ebacked Yes0c80,620$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.2420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2336…9e65backed Yes0c70,000$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick26cpaid-56.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd710…4ce9backed Yes0c68,280$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e59…6070backed Yes0c63,590$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c60,218$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.44456.7%3 W · 42 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick4cpaid-78.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8bb…d93bbacked Yes0c55,000$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ada…dde1backed Yes0c53,500$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a13…4593backed Yes0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001711.8%2 W · 15 L-3.5wins-0.20per pick32cpaid-83.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9ecb…d40dbacked Yes0c50,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15050%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe443…5e2bbacked Yes0c35,507$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.5220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes1c33,480$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.11601.7%1 W · 59 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-70.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c31,000$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31504%2 W · 48 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+40.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4138…2a24backed Yes0c30,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40d…c72dbacked Yes0c29,388$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.1660%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa851…e233backed Yes0c25,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5060%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c66…6b66backed Yes0c25,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50205%1 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-92.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d62…a1f0backed Yes4c14,631$609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.466023.3%14 W · 46 L+5.9wins+0.10per pick13cpaid+32.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c13,934$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.691455.5%8 W · 137 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-67.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d46…cc20backed Yes0c12,790$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacb2…2e21backed Yes0c12,208$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9280…1a5fbacked Yes0c12,121$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52ca…f294backed Yes0c11,533$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.640%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7349…8a6dbacked Yes0c11,335$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.34944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick34cpaid-42.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes0c11,050$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.1522030.5%67 W · 153 L-13.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-37.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7bdf…d7a2backed Yes2c10,406$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.82714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-68.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a66…0a12backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d88…b0c4backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick12cpaid-76.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdadf…b1edbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10150%0 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f5e…1f1cbacked Yes0c10,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f9f…2b77backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1050%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d7d…3e9cbacked Yes0c10,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3060%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7abd…47d1backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x825b…e7e4backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc952…3c89backed Yes0c8,667$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe74e…90b6backed Yes0c8,567$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5024…0e6abacked Yes2c8,519$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.3140%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes0c8,288$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.896222.6%14 W · 48 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-39.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7bdf…1bf4backed Yes2c8,075$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.8616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick10cpaid-18.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7698…0637backed Yes1c8,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf021…901fbacked Yes1c7,987$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2577…8d05backed Yes1c7,467$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc42b…158fbacked Yes0c7,333$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e60…df0ebacked Yes0c7,050$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11e5…9e34backed Yes0c6,980$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x378b…c568backed Yes0c6,667$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5661…8121backed Yes0c6,667$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8eb3…6b3fbacked Yes0c6,577$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda1d…26a7backed Yes0c6,333$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes1c6,104$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.61462.2%1 W · 45 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick1cpaid+55.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf051…87dabacked Yes0c6,067$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0ff…675abacked Yes0c6,067$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x972e…3414backed Yes0c6,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48a2…0e7ebacked Yes0c6,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c8d…80a6backed Yes0c6,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes3c5,977$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.5216350.3%82 W · 81 L+24.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+23.5%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x444b…d8e3backed Yes1c5,908$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97ae…2594backed Yes1c5,833$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06ed…f76fbacked Yes0c5,710$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.13520%1 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick8cpaid-45.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa16f…b703backed Yes1c5,524$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.861315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-52.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdda3…fd4cbacked Yes0c5,517$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa375…2b3ebacked Yes1c5,423$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes0c5,320$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.46190%0 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc253…6135backed Yes1c5,300$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08be…6645backed Yes0c5,100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes3c5,100$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.4216040%64 W · 96 L+8.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6774…8106backed Yes0c5,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49a8…7153backed Yes0c5,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x740b…6cb9backed Yes0c5,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c08…ad92backed Yes1c5,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes2c4,927$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.0210537.1%39 W · 66 L+6.0wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe12f…5234backed Yes0c4,750$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa53f…17acbacked Yes0c4,733$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x937b…2c14backed Yes0c4,667$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x110a…38a8backed Yes0c4,636$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.59110%0 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9174…d0bfbacked Yes0c4,621$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46e8…7198backed Yes1c4,575$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7494…6e0bbacked Yes2c4,500$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.53423.5%8 W · 26 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+68.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2af5…3bfebacked Yes1c4,410$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc354…98aebacked Yes0c4,333$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa947…8e53backed Yes0c4,267$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e54…9133backed Yes1c4,223$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d96…4781backed Yes0c4,220$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0b5…5ea4backed Yes1c4,148$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa85…9a53backed Yes0c4,119$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3583…bfcebacked Yes1c4,093$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36b2…3e50backed Yes0c4,067$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8202…a294backed Yes0c4,067$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e3c…57c1backed Yes1c4,042$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f45…78e0backed Yes0c4,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac6…5effbacked Yes1c3,976$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.