TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,968,519
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,317,800

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,968,519 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 175 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb4f2…7862backed Yes0c1,338,060$2,897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,896.7140%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48e7…d5f8backed Yes0c1,235,161$1,844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,843.871910.5%2 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick7cpaid-66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes0c809,959$2,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,037.8330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c569,786$763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$763.19456.7%3 W · 42 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick4cpaid-78.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb41a…3a25backed Yes0c537,724$1,889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,888.7860%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c66…6b66backed Yes0c401,248$802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802.5205%1 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-92.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2165…f598backed Yes0c349,999$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,400240%0 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ecb…d40dbacked Yes0c198,098$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.150%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec1a…3501backed Yes0c120,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x166f…ea2dbacked Yes0c105,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a81…58b0backed Yes0c101,000$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10260%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4138…2a24backed Yes0c91,152$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34b5…8f00backed Yes0c85,310$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe443…5e2bbacked Yes0c76,500$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7a1…a448backed Yes0c71,805$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4b0…7f46backed Yes0c68,333$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83c6…8e6abacked Yes0c62,000$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a13…4593backed Yes0c60,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201711.8%2 W · 15 L-3.5wins-0.20per pick32cpaid-83.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa5e7…fcbdbacked Yes0c54,799$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe818…bcf3backed Yes0c54,000$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9f9…0f4dbacked Yes0c50,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd817…ac33backed Yes0c40,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick26cpaid-37.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c94…5b86backed Yes2c39,669$638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$637.651414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-58.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c31,000$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31504%2 W · 48 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+40.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fef…839ebacked Yes0c30,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40d…c72dbacked Yes0c29,835$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.560%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f9f…2b77backed Yes0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2550%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa851…e233backed Yes0c25,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5060%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe8c…ad4bbacked Yes0c18,212$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.421040%4 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-30.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d62…a1f0backed Yes3c15,438$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.96023.3%14 W · 46 L+5.9wins+0.10per pick13cpaid+32.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7595…6e08backed Yes1c12,800$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb004…dbd4backed Yes1c12,516$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick12cpaid+14.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0ec…6064backed Yes0c12,489$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes0c12,314$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.416222.6%14 W · 48 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-39.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5dc…0d98backed Yes1c12,000$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.7137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+41.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c11,711$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.831455.5%8 W · 137 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-67.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes1c10,399$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.39601.7%1 W · 59 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-70.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x57c8…3d9bbacked Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d88…b0c4backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick12cpaid-76.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdadf…b1edbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10150%0 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7fb…7d8cbacked Yes0c10,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3050%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d7d…3e9cbacked Yes0c10,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3060%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9602…7edabacked Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0353…74a4backed Yes0c9,726$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd461…1d6cbacked Yes0c9,571$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.2930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes1c9,154$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.59462.2%1 W · 45 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick1cpaid+55.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4f7…0331backed Yes4c8,585$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.85714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-27.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes0c7,151$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.622030.5%67 W · 153 L-13.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-37.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd5f1…38b4backed Yes0c6,745$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fe9…a508backed Yes0c6,633$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80f5…b7afbacked Yes0c6,433$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x851c…6237backed Yes0c6,400$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03e3…0104backed Yes0c6,300$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed95…b1e6backed Yes7c6,300$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4603225%8 W · 24 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-55.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2263…4e26backed Yes3c6,168$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.231526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-44.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc15…7421backed Yes0c6,167$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1320…a62bbacked Yes0c6,133$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37fb…2df1backed Yes0c6,128$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4cc…64a0backed Yes0c5,900$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd03b…b34abacked Yes0c5,867$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6e1…c00fbacked Yes0c5,867$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9647…c18abacked Yes4c5,846$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d18…01a3backed Yes0c5,833$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e78…e415backed Yes1c5,795$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.881811.1%2 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-34.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb81…423abacked Yes0c5,772$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8bc…2eabbacked Yes2c5,692$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.69130%0 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d9e…3a2ebacked Yes0c5,682$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1c0…a4e0backed Yes0c5,633$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d83…5056backed Yes0c5,600$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f98…82cebacked Yes0c5,567$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9855…b1f3backed Yes0c5,567$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8af8…72e9backed Yes0c5,467$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fd1…05a7backed Yes0c5,433$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a5f…43babacked Yes0c5,433$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4eed…b71ebacked Yes0c5,333$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes2c5,326$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.3618719.3%36 W · 151 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-55.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7987…dacdbacked Yes0c5,300$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4305…8bafbacked Yes0c5,267$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdef…e7c3backed Yes0c5,200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9131…82debacked Yes0c5,200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6937…1257backed Yes0c5,200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1915…d0a5backed Yes0c5,133$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ee9…8638backed Yes0c5,067$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd613…cef3backed Yes0c5,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbd2…f7c1backed Yes0c4,743$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa321…c3e2backed Yes0c4,563$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb024…f7f9backed Yes0c4,500$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc78d…264abacked Yes0c4,500$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f97…611bbacked Yes0c4,267$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ff2…aa11backed Yes0c4,167$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb1d…cea7backed Yes0c4,152$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ac8…31c3backed Yes1c3,999$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe21…8512backed Yes0c3,833$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36e8…db37backed Yes0c3,591$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.36911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-54.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd94c…11cfbacked Yes0c3,433$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x570b…1263backed Yes0c3,433$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc3f…ed21backed Yes0c3,400$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6acb…b22fbacked Yes0c3,400$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbf6…0dbbbacked Yes0c3,363$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa29a…09c7backed Yes1c3,311$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.341540%6 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+24.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.