TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,699,200
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,100,848

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,699,200 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 160 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4bac…02b1backed Yes0c4,523,719$10,682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,682.0890%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c66…6b66backed Yes0c1,189,468$2,489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,489.17205%1 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-92.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf32a…06fdbacked Yes0c714,046$2,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,142.1450%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f85…8693backed Yes0c571,733$1,715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,715.22623.1%6 W · 20 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick17cpaid-30.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x48e7…d5f8backed Yes0c336,642$863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$863.041910.5%2 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick7cpaid-66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2165…f598backed Yes0c299,999$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900240%0 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c259,178$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.36456.7%3 W · 42 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick4cpaid-78.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a13…4593backed Yes0c179,950$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.851711.8%2 W · 15 L-3.5wins-0.20per pick32cpaid-83.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xee23…10d2backed Yes0c150,053$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb41a…3a25backed Yes0c140,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38060%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc142…8acabacked Yes0c134,860$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6296…5b9cbacked Yes0c107,043$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d8e…cb97backed Yes0c85,250$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5e7…fcbdbacked Yes0c80,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf74…022cbacked Yes0c72,333$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x084b…580abacked Yes0c72,120$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2336…9e65backed Yes0c70,000$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick26cpaid-56.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a81…58b0backed Yes0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10060%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8225…162fbacked Yes0c44,785$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.1540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ada…dde1backed Yes0c42,250$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6dc…8497backed Yes0c34,480$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a6d…eba7backed Yes0c32,563$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c32…013bbacked Yes0c31,650$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda1d…bcb7backed Yes0c31,405$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3c2…e6c4backed Yes0c31,400$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54fa…ec55backed Yes0c31,163$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea06…8f2fbacked Yes0c31,025$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc45…0364backed Yes0c31,000$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc4c…e3fabacked Yes0c30,975$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c60…4dacbacked Yes0c30,950$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59e2…476bbacked Yes0c30,913$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf45f…b3bbbacked Yes0c30,800$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9804…7712backed Yes0c30,564$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c2f…57e0backed Yes0c30,500$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e88…8840backed Yes0c30,500$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe340…8306backed Yes0c30,500$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ecb…d40dbacked Yes0c30,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9050%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcbd…629bbacked Yes0c29,865$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1224…4690backed Yes0c29,650$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee35…e204backed Yes0c29,413$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6291…16d3backed Yes0c28,980$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d87…7049backed Yes0c28,775$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0729…1e08backed Yes0c28,690$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d29…6b93backed Yes0c28,500$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3150…a834backed Yes0c28,475$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d00…b643backed Yes0c28,245$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e20…6e78backed Yes0c28,230$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0704…a636backed Yes0c28,200$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54a2…bfcbbacked Yes0c28,096$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40d…c72dbacked Yes0c27,835$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.3460%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd9f…def9backed Yes0c27,663$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fbc…d1a7backed Yes0c27,313$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6f3…826abacked Yes0c27,108$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b3d…f8c3backed Yes0c27,100$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cba…fc35backed Yes0c26,963$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2eca…db22backed Yes0c26,779$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x299d…f3a3backed Yes0c26,513$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd614…723dbacked Yes0c26,390$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x082e…a096backed Yes0c26,325$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6df8…999cbacked Yes0c26,115$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe78f…9aa2backed Yes0c26,110$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80df…5714backed Yes0c25,575$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff8c…fc33backed Yes0c25,040$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes0c24,149$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.16190%0 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32bf…4e60backed Yes1c23,974$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes1c21,463$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.2416237.7%61 W · 101 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9131…1fa2backed Yes0c21,253$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c21,000$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42504%2 W · 48 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+40.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2e8…3daebacked Yes0c18,313$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2252…83f1backed Yes0c16,313$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.0520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e9f…81cfbacked Yes0c16,288$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.2120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5c2…61afbacked Yes0c16,021$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.3320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09c8…b543backed Yes0c15,725$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0945…3d5ebacked Yes0c15,563$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.2520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a5e…b452backed Yes0c15,563$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.2520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe90f…5eb0backed Yes0c15,118$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.4720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e42…33b4backed Yes0c15,100$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d88…b0c4backed Yes0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick12cpaid-76.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa851…e233backed Yes0c15,000$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4560%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde9d…35f8backed Yes0c13,750$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2734…da3fbacked Yes1c13,200$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42ea…d2e7backed Yes0c13,028$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.1120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c12,698$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.96462.2%1 W · 45 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick1cpaid+55.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa043…23bbbacked Yes0c12,500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd1a…8360backed Yes1c12,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91ed…fec4backed Yes1c12,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e3e…d43fbacked Yes1c11,698$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfead…b304backed Yes1c10,400$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-36.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes0c10,321$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.96425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.14per pick11cpaid-43.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3da…8387backed Yes0c10,295$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.0520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7fb…7d8cbacked Yes0c10,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3050%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes0c9,999$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40601.7%1 W · 59 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-70.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe359…6e1ebacked Yes1c9,572$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73be…f0b3backed Yes0c8,817$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bcd…1fe1backed Yes1c8,334$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc55…3ef8backed Yes0c7,667$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf660…6bd0backed Yes1c7,600$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1eef…2cd9backed Yes0c7,505$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes0c6,994$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.441455.5%8 W · 137 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-67.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bc3…bc50backed Yes0c6,912$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.