Will Bernard Cazeneuve be the next Prime Minister of France?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b0a8285a718f0fe0000ee5febd1f1125901d72b1bbc61ac6c5d2e995e37c3c7

Rebuilt 5 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 10, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $42,471
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $20,795

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,471 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in World Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	15,051$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.42	1,431	10.1%145 W · 1,286 L	-4.9wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa224…3769backed Yes	4c	5,393$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$202.45	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes	9c	1,046$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.34	35	25.7%9 W · 26 L	+2.4wins	+0.07per pick	19cpaid	-4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeec5…0e74backed Yes	6c	765.14$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.48	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-65.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4aae…d563backed Yes	36c	683.47$245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$244.74	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	-1.9wins	-0.11per pick	50cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3814…f0bfbacked No	79c	623.06$493 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$130.47	13	69.2%9 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	71cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xfe72…cb10backed Yes	7c	612.99$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.78	60	30%18 W · 42 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	+22.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cba…b9acbacked Yes	5c	612.99$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.65	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+1.2wins	+0.40per pick	27cpaid	+178.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No	74c	587.8$434 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$154.17	576	36.3%209 W · 367 L	-27.2wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-28.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cea…f32abacked Yes	29c	530$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.5	51	17.6%9 W · 42 L	-2.4wins	-0.05per pick	22cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes	9c	508.73$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.61	261	39.8%104 W · 157 L	+16.3wins	+0.06per pick	34cpaid	+32.5%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes	15c	480.04$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.54	114	35.1%40 W · 74 L	+6.8wins	+0.06per pick	29cpaid	+15.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6590…ad78backed Yes	15c	477.43$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.73	37	27%10 W · 27 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	24cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1fe…9974backed Yes	24c	409.84$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	15cpaid	-81.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f3b…e349backed Yes	21c	359.9$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61c7…82cebacked Yes	12c	349.98$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.3	24	16.7%4 W · 20 L	-2.1wins	-0.09per pick	25cpaid	-47.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ebd…58ffbacked Yes	17c	331.87$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.5	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86f8…b0f3backed Yes	44c	312.64$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.44per pick	44cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc39d…4891backed Yes	29c	298.18$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.22	29	34.5%10 W · 19 L	+3.6wins	+0.12per pick	22cpaid	+131.6%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7355…9443backed No	78c	258.98$202 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.3	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.15per pick	65cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8a2…aff4backed Yes	20c	254.35$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	-1.5wins	-0.09per pick	38cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x77b6…0155backed Yes	20c	234.04$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+1.1wins	+0.26per pick	24cpaid	+103.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5676…b103backed Yes	23c	200$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.2	205	38%78 W · 127 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c14…10a2backed Yes	29c	200$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xee03…6edbbacked No	66c	200$132 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.16per pick	34cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66d4…ae10backed No	80c	199.98$159 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+1.9wins	+0.19per pick	31cpaid	+120.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9620…4260backed Yes	25c	197.68$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.2wins	-0.17per pick	45cpaid	+75.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	8c	185.74$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.05	1,022	28%286 W · 736 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-34.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa16f…b703backed Yes	16c	179.93$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.49	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xa314…5ba7backed Yes	16c	166.8$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.48	92	48.9%45 W · 47 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes	14c	158.21$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.61	367	42.5%156 W · 211 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd04e…77dfbacked Yes	13c	154.56$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-2.8wins	-0.12per pick	21cpaid	-81.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf261…a709backed Yes	21c	143.49$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.37per pick	37cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x943d…4a7cbacked Yes	28c	140.6$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	26cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20b0…c595backed Yes	17c	127$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.3	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x097c…630abacked Yes	21c	120.04$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-65.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fe6…bbb2backed Yes	19c	105.98$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.2wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes	17c	100$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	133	43.6%58 W · 75 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0dcb…9540backed Yes	31c	100$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.4	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	34cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e7f…2d2dbacked Yes	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.3	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-41%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa05…4908backed Yes	16c	100$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.4	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+1.5wins	+0.25per pick	8cpaid	+1,077.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x019a…7df0backed Yes	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	+1.5wins	+0.12per pick	35cpaid	+40.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No	44c	93.79$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.81	123	45.5%56 W · 67 L	+5.2wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No	61c	93.46$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.92	322	55%177 W · 145 L	+14.3wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	-5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7014…41eebacked Yes	22c	91.15$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7896…d133backed Yes	22c	88.91$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…4a2abacked Yes	12c	81.77$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.14	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.09per pick	34cpaid	-47.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9ad…0acdbacked Yes	17c	77.47$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.98	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec45…eed1backed Yes	20c	70.25$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.71	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x420b…965bbacked Yes	15c	70$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-2.3wins	-0.19per pick	44cpaid	-55.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x54df…8823backed Yes	22c	67.15$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3f6…2f6bbacked Yes	45c	64.26$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-33%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c4c…8d85backed No	71c	60.67$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.67	37	40.5%15 W · 22 L	+3.2wins	+0.09per pick	32cpaid	+67.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a0d…c6bebacked No	79c	60$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.79	29	41.4%12 W · 17 L	+1.6wins	+0.06per pick	36cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e98…9beebacked Yes	36c	55.77$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No	75c	46.15$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.39	314	43.9%138 W · 176 L	-12.8wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7115…a9fabacked Yes	33c	42.59$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.33per pick	33cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8af…04e7backed Yes	33c	39.55$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.13	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-2.1wins	-0.24per pick	57cpaid	-51.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7489…4c80backed Yes	36c	38.89$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.1wins	-0.37per pick	37cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x586e…4910backed No	70c	28.64$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.64	11	72.7%8 W · 3 L	+1.3wins	+0.12per pick	61cpaid	+25.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x36f1…ec06backed No	62c	27.24$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.49	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	68cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Bernard Cazeneuve be the next Prime Minister of France?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event