TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will there be no new Prime Minister of France?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$272,235
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$231,365

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $272,235 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 137 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb20b…8da0backed Yes1c17,817$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.27812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick23cpaid-78.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce66…cc64backed No67c17,074$11,432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,641.872227.3%6 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-19.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe085…5474backed Yes0c15,000$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.16195.3%1 W · 18 L-2.4wins-0.13per pick18cpaid-83.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3db7…1456backed Yes0c12,000$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-36.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fec…c965backed Yes0c11,507$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.511926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-48.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5f5…28b7backed Yes1c10,849$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.3520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36da…8218backed Yes1c10,488$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.761323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101494.7%7 W · 142 L+0.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-17.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c74…bd4ebacked Yes75c9,960$7,495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,495.23540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes73c4,093$2,982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,981.5631635.1%111 W · 205 L-11.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid+6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed No34c3,824$1,314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,510.53560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+41%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ffb…a834backed Yes4c3,788$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.922817.9%5 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick19cpaid+285.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b21…41fabacked Yes23c3,550$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$819.84771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.33per pick38cpaid+75.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x27b8…b68cbacked Yes0c3,290$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8140%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes9c3,059$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.286622.7%15 W · 51 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-58.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x55c4…4b34backed Yes36c2,949$1,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,056.361421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-30.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes1c2,628$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.165527.3%15 W · 40 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+30%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed No36c2,584$939 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,645.6112133.1%40 W · 81 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes6c2,440$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.831,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc39d…4891backed Yes1c2,030$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.752934.5%10 W · 19 L+3.6wins+0.12per pick22cpaid+131.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4aae…d563backed Yes50c2,004$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa224…3769backed Yes30c1,896$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.6770%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x628f…d10cbacked Yes70c1,890$1,332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,331.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes16c1,677$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.026741.8%28 W · 39 L+8.1wins+0.12per pick30cpaid+7.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed Yes9c1,573$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.855244.2%23 W · 29 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbe5…18d8backed Yes7c1,391$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.7520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-55.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2478…2e62backed Yes19c1,350$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2603737.8%14 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-16.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf6d…9c5cbacked No30c1,300$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$912.485420.4%11 W · 43 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-37.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes9c1,300$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.9514834.5%51 W · 97 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeec5…0e74backed Yes3c1,231$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-65.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a4c…532bbacked Yes13c1,207$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.935521.8%12 W · 43 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick21cpaid+27.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe281…e7bfbacked Yes27c1,052$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.83912.8%5 W · 34 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick14cpaid+42.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1037…413fbacked Yes1c998.46$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.53520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-74.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Yes29c955.11$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.0611741%48 W · 69 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-24.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8341…de89backed Yes54c899$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.642931%9 W · 20 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f16…da10backed Yes76c785.17$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60020%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes7c740.99$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.193525.7%9 W · 26 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick19cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8267…8690backed No79c723.2$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.22100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3e4…8d04backed No66c693.85$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.73925.6%10 W · 29 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-43.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0260…0d88backed No73c683.15$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.14580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.23per pick57cpaid+44.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed No21c672$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.227335.6%26 W · 47 L+15.3wins+0.21per pick15cpaid+188.8%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x068f…866abacked Yes12c662.89$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+108.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc637…d0f8backed Yes16c651$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5676…b103backed Yes7c644.11$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.3720538%78 W · 127 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes8c616.3$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.124766.5%31 W · 445 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c14…10a2backed Yes10c600$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.5530%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes22c581.47$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.6113343.6%58 W · 75 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a28…9d4ebacked Yes74c565.09$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.4120%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes4c550$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204450%22 W · 22 L+6.8wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+28.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1c1e…bfe7backed No59c545.02$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.242326.1%6 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick21cpaid-42.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes15c520$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.7636742.5%156 W · 211 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19cb…a867backed Yes26c516.81$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.83728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fc3…46f9backed Yes6c514.61$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30850%4 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2230…a66cbacked No72c483$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.882948.3%14 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+34.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes22c448.54$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.331,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8181…ea9ebacked No67c432.92$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.76450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+241.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb50…3250backed Yes71c426.41$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f36…9d7cbacked Yes23c425.95$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77b6…0155backed Yes13c417.49$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.5450%2 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+103.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdeb9…1cb4backed Yes21c414.55$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.21per pick13cpaid+196.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a3d…efffbacked Yes11c412.78$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.72771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick49cpaid+30.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x03c8…0e01backed Yes74c361$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.323721.6%8 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a0d…c6bebacked Yes37c360.97$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.532941.4%12 W · 17 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed Yes33c356$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.73135.5%11 W · 20 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8a2…aff4backed Yes30c338.52$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x66d4…ae10backed Yes59c334.8$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.161050%5 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+120.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes74c332.07$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.73156.7%1 W · 14 L-3.3wins-0.22per pick28cpaid-91.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes16c332.07$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.2811435.1%40 W · 74 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes12c329.1$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.083740.5%15 W · 22 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+67.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd41…eea2backed Yes9c327.93$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.76333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-57.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61c7…82cebacked Yes3c325.19$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.192416.7%4 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-47.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd61…0002backed Yes17c315.04$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.13728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-22.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0dde…94c3backed No68c304.53$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.3966.7%6 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fbd…f6c0backed Yes14c302.57$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41475%3 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.43per pick32cpaid+162.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes26c300$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$787317.8%13 W · 60 L-7.7wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-56.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8cf4…5608backed No78c272.08$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.235100%5 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+55.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x31d0…08f0backed No67c271.99$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.962100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6590…ad78backed Yes22c266.76$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.593727%10 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf19f…bff1backed Yes12c255.14$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xceef…80b1backed Yes19c241.7$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4530%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf01a…9c79backed Yes9c226.43$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick17cpaid+597.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda50…442dbacked Yes79c203$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab58…b07dbacked Yes11c200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.71850%9 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-16.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf9f…2a46backed No36c200$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.91533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-33.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes35c200$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703537.1%13 W · 22 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-32.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cd2…393abacked Yes25c200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ff6…1664backed Yes29c198.82$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.3820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x019a…7df0backed Yes71c197.54$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.481346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+40.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x437e…1555backed Yes47c194.09$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.43250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+61.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ba4…8a89backed No76c189.23$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.412634.6%9 W · 17 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-31.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x529d…6381backed Yes18c187.12$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.23046.7%14 W · 16 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x49b5…d249backed No68c185.45$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.65540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-30.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d89…340cbacked Yes28c183.21$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.43825%2 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-26.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd6b…68f5backed No34c177.03$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.486328.6%18 W · 45 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23d8…050fbacked Yes75c158.93$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed Yes55c150$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.353839.5%15 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-28.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e37…0f99backed No72c138.12$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.12333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-54%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34a…6007backed No64c125.76$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.171861.1%11 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick61cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No75c123.74$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.9632255%177 W · 145 L+14.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4db3…cd7bbacked Yes18c109.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.