Will Catherine Vautrin be the next Prime Minister of France?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2587d76cf13ddbe26d6c424fdf2dead1f5ee6b3d8cdd03311d3166cc4177aeef

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 10, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $17,897
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $10,871

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,897 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in World Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	2,825$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.72	1,431	10.1%145 W · 1,286 L	-4.9wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc0d1…8202backed Yes	4c	1,249$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.11	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes	2c	905.98$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.06	149	4.7%7 W · 142 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes	1c	859.21$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.69	35	25.7%9 W · 26 L	+2.4wins	+0.07per pick	19cpaid	-4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeec5…0e74backed Yes	3c	759.52$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-65.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe72…cb10backed Yes	5c	327.87$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.39	60	30%18 W · 42 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	+22.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0523…e38bbacked Yes	4c	292.2$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.28	40	37.5%15 W · 25 L	+1.4wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes	10c	226.87$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.17	476	6.5%31 W · 445 L	-8.9wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61c7…82cebacked Yes	12c	210$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.78	24	16.7%4 W · 20 L	-2.1wins	-0.09per pick	25cpaid	-47.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc981…a75dbacked Yes	6c	191.31$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.52	57	15.8%9 W · 48 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-46.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc56f…bd87backed Yes	6c	169.97$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.37	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2417…86b1backed Yes	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa314…5ba7backed Yes	14c	71.26$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.1	92	48.9%45 W · 47 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Catherine Vautrin be the next Prime Minister of France?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event